Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, October 12, 2001

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
300 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2001

POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS VERY EVIDENT ON LATEST WV LOOP WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
INTO CENTRAL NM. 850MB WINDS BACKING AND GAINING STRENGTH WITH DEW
POINTS INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA. DRYLINE HAS MOVED THROUGH MAF AND
IS EXPECTED INTO WESTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON... AT CURRENT PACE
EXPECT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY AT ABOUT THE SAME
TIME. WITH CLOUD COVER DELAYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEST OF CWA...
EXPECT INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS FRONT OVERTAKES DRY LINE
EARLY THIS EVENING EAST OF A SAN ANGELO TO ABILENE LINE. MESOETA QS
CONVERGENCE HITS EASTERN COUNTIES HEAVY THIS EVENING ALONG WITH BEST
DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. QS WRAPS BACK INTO BIG COUNTRY
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ACCORDANCE WITH POSITIONING OF UPPER LOW... BUT
WITH BEST DYNAMICS EAST OF THE BIG COUNTRY AT THAT TIME... WILL KEEP
THUNDER CONFINED TO HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. WITH
WESTERN CWA BEING DRY SLOTTED... WILL NOT MENTION POPS IN THAT
REGION. EXPECT SUPERCELLS EVOLVING INTO A RAPIDLY MOVING NORTH/SOUTH
ORIENTED SQUALL LINE THAT WILL BE EAST OF CWA BEFORE TOMORROW
MORNING.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING... EXTENDED TEMPS
LOOK SEASONABLE WITH NO PRECIP ON THE HORIZON.

PRELIM CCF...

ABI 050/065/040/075 2000
SJT 053/068/041/078 1000
JCT 055/070/042/078 4000

.SJT...LAKE CAUTION ALL ZONES TONIGHT.

15

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-122330-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
230 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
A SURFACE DRYLINE INTERSECT THIS AIR MASS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR SWEETWATER TO SAN ANGELO...WITH THE
STORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THEY MOVE EAST.

GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF RAPIDLY BECOMING SEVERE. ALTHOUGH
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE IN THE PRIMARY THREATS
...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH WIND SHEAR TO ALLOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
SEE SEVERE STORMS IS ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL
COUNTRY...WHERE A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ALONG AND
EAST OF A BROWNWOOD TO BRADY TO JUNCTION LINE.

THE STORMS SHOULD RACE QUICKLY EAST...CLEARING ALL OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS BY MIDNIGHT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSLBB. FOR
THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC. FOR THE NORTH
TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT FTWSPSFTW. FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT SATSPSSAT.

07

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-122330-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
235 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
A SURFACE DRYLINE INTERSECT THIS AIR MASS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG A LINE A LINE FROM NEAR ABILENE TO SAN ANGELO...
WITH THE STORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THEY MOVE EAST.

GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF RAPIDLY BECOMING SEVERE. ALTHOUGH
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE IN THE PRIMARY THREATS
...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH WIND SHEAR TO ALLOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
SEE SEVERE STORMS IS ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL
COUNTRY...WHERE A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ALONG AND
EAST OF A BROWNWOOD TO BRADY TO JUNCTION LINE.

GIVEN THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...RESIDENTS OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

THE STORMS SHOULD RACE QUICKLY EAST...CLEARING ALL OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS BY MIDNIGHT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSLBB. FOR
THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC. FOR THE NORTH
TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT FTWSPSFTW. FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT SATSPSSAT.

07