Damaging Wind in Texas, May 5, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
200 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2001

FIRST ROUND OF WEATHER CAME AND WENT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SECOND
ROUND POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE SIGNIFICANT LATE TONIGHT.

AS POINTED OUT IN EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...A STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE
HAS QUICKLY BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN TEXAS WHERE LOWER 80S HAVE BEEN REACHED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LATEST MSAS DATA SHOWING LI OF -5 TO -8 WITH NO CAP IN PLACE.
MESOETA/AVN APPEAR TO BOTH HAVE A SIMILAR HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS
WITH THE MESOETA PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOW TO GET RID OF INITIAL ROUND
OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING...EVEN THOUGH IT HANDLED THE WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY BETTER THAN THE OTHERS. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING HAS LED TO SOME WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
A THETA-E ORIENTED AXIS RUNNING FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO NORTH LA.
FORTUNATELY THERE IS NO TRIGGER TO INSTIGATE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CWA. THIS WILL CHANGE AS WE GO THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

HAVING SAID THIS...MESOETA/AVN POINTING TOWARDS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE
SWINGING THROUGH CENTRAL/SE TX THIS EVENING WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE CLOSE ON ITS HEELS AS POTENT UPPER LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL LIKELY ORIENT INTO A LINEAR NE-SW LINE AND MARCH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. AGREE WITH SPC IN THEIR DECISION
TO PUSH THE MODERATE RISK FURTHER WEST TONIGHT BUT ALSO IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIND DAMAGE WITH A WEAKENING BUT STILL HEALTHY
SQUALL LINE APPROACHING NE TX/SE OK LATE TONIGHT. HIGHEST POPS WARRANTED
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TRENDING THEM LOWER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.

SFC BOUNDARY/850MB TROUGH JUST WEST OF CWA IN COMBINATION WITH YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
CHANCE AT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL MENTION SEVERE IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHER POPS HERE AS WELL. BOUNDARY FINALLY GETS A PUSH SOUTHEAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING WITH SHORTTERM MODELS. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE OF PRECIP ON MONDAY WITH CHANCES CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL KEEP DRIER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PRELIMS ARE AS FOLLOWS...13

SHV 66/83/64/80 5565  MLU 66/81/65/82 3444  TXK 66/82/65/80 6574
TYR 65/84/63/80 6464  LFK 66/84/64/83 5343

.SHV...NONE.