Tornadoes and Hail in Oklahoma, May 5 to 6, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2001

THE UPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO INITIATE SEVERE STORMS OVER NORTH TX
AND OK TONIGHT WAS MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN NM EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COORDINATION WITH THE HYDROLOGIST, RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL,
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT HAVE RESULTED IN A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR PART OF SOUTHWEST OK TONIGHT. REFER TO THE NWS NORMAN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS ON TONIGHTS EXPECTED WEATHER.
BY MID-DAY SUNDAY THE DRYLINE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WITH THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OK. AS
THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY FAR SOUTH OF SOUTHEAST
OK, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THERE
THROUGH MONDAY. A FAST-MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE TRAVELING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MAY HELP IN INITIATING SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THIS
SURFACE FRONT MONDAY.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS OK MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT,
LEADING TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ISNT EXPECTED TO GO VERY FAR
AND SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
BUT A BUILDING UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SHOULD DIMINISH
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AT LEAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY,
THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN ALLOWING MID-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW
TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURNS TO THE FORECAST THE END OF THE WEEK.

FCSTID = 9
OKC   61  74  53  72 / 100  20   0   0
HBR   57  73  51  73 / 100   0   0   0
SPS   59  76  55  74 / 100   0   0   0
GAG   53  70  44  71 /  60   0   0   0
PNC   59  72  52  70 /  80   0   0   0
DUA   63  75  59  74 /  80  60  20  20

.OUN...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT ZONES 037-038-044.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TOINGHT ZONES 085-086.