Tornado and Hail in Kansas, May 5, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
351 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2001

FCST CONCERNS...
SVR WX POTNL THIS EVENING/EARLY TNGT AND CHCS OF CNVTN ON SUNDAY...
TEMP/PCPN TRENDS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...

CLOSED UPR LOW OVR ERN CO PROGD TO GRADULY OPEN UP AND LIFT NEWD ACRS
THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU 24HRS. DRY SLOT WHICH MOVD ACRS CNTRL KS EARLY
THIS MRNG HAS PROMOTED CLRG ACRS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE CWA WITH EVEN LO
LVL DRYING/STABILIZATION OF AIRMASS. THIS WL BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE
LO LVL FLO PROGD TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO UPR TROF LIFTG OUT. MSTR IS
XPCTD TO SURGE NWWD ACRS WRN OKLA/SCNTRL KS TWD 00Z WITH INCRSG CNVGNC
ALG THE DRY LN TO OUR SW. SFC HTG AND MID LVL COLD ADVCTN WL RESULT
IN RAPID DESTABILIZATION BY LATE AFTN AND TSRA DVPLMT WITH UPR SPEED
MAX OF 85KTS AT H3 INCRSG SHEAR PROFILE FOR STG/SVR STMS. XPCT MOST
ACTIVITY TO RMN SW OF THE AREA THRU 00Z...WITH INCRSG POTNL THRU THE
EVENING HRS. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE LRG HAIL ACRS CNTRL KS WITH
THE TORNADO POTNL HINGING ON WHETHER NR SFC/LO LVL FLO CAN BACK
SUFFICIENTLY. WL CONT SVR WORDING IN ZONES TNGT ACCORDINGLY.

STG/SVR CNVTN LIKELY BCM MORE LINEAR AS IT MOVS ACRS ERN PTNS AND
OUT OF THE CWA LATER TNGT...WITH PRIMARY THREAT WIND AND HAIL. WL
CONT CHC POPS ACRS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS S/W IN NRN STREAM PHASES
WITH TROF LIFTG OUT ACRS ERN KS. LO LVL COLD/DRY AIR ADVCTN TO
COMMENCE ACRS THE AREA ON NNWLY FLO SUNDAY NGT/MON...SO XCPT FOR
SLGT EVE POPS SERN KS...WL CONT DRY FCST FOR THE CWA.

EXTENDED FCST...THE ECMWF CONTS TO HAVE THE BEST CONTINUITY FM PRVS
RUNS AND WL LEAN TWD ITS SOLN THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. WL CONT THE
GENL WARMING TREND INTO THU AHD OF NRN STREAM UPR TROF. TEMPS AND
PCPN FCST HINGE ON DVLPMT/MOVMT OF THIS FEATURE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. LO LVL MSTR IS PROGD TO INCRS AHD OF TROF...BUT ITS TIMING
AND STRENGTH ARE IN QUESTION. WL MENTION SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH BEST CHC PERHAPS LATE THU AND FRI.

ZONES WL PROBLY BE ABT 10 MINUTES LATE THIS AFTN.

FCSTID = 13/DARMOFAL
ICT   58  73  48  70 /  60  30  20   5
HUT   56  71  46  69 /  60  30  20   5
EWK   57  72  47  69 /  60  30  20   5
EQA   58  73  48  69 /  60  30  20   5
WLD   59  74  49  71 /  60  30  20   5
RSL   52  68  43  68 /  60  30  10   5
GBD   53  69  44  69 /  60  30  10   5
SLN   57  71  47  69 /  60  40  10   5
MPR   57  71  47  69 /  60  40  10   5
CFV   L61  76  51  71 /  70  50  30   5
CNU   60  75  50  70 /  70  50  30   5
K88   60  75  49  69 /  70  50  30   5

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-052300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2001

A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES IN:

CENTRAL KANSAS...
         RUSSELL             BARTON              LINCOLN
         ELLSWORTH           RICE                SALINE
         MCPHERSON           MARION              CHASE

SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
         RENO                KINGMAN             HARPER
         HARVEY              SEDGWICK            SUMNER
         BUTLER              COWLEY

SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
         GREENWOOD           ELK                 CHAUTAUQUA
         WILSON              WOODSON             MONTGOMERY
         ALLEN               NEOSHO              LABETTE

THE SYNOPSIS:
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT. AT
THE SAME TIME...A DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRY LINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF KANSAS. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT...
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS IS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND...HOWEVER TORNADOES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

/RUNYAN