Hail in Texas, May 5, 2001

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
245 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2001

SHORT TERM...ANALYSIS OF LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND METAR DATA
INDICATES DRYLINE JUST PUSHING INTO OUR WESTERN CWFA. LATEST WSR-88D
AND SURFACE PROFILER DATA SHOWS WESTERLY FLOW AT ALL BUT THE VERY
LOWEST LEVEL. HOWEVER...ONLY LIGHT SPEED SHEAR EVIDENT. MODELS DO
NOT AGREE ON DRYLINE ACTION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE NGM
AND ETA PUSH IT EAST OF OUR CWFA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE AVN MOVES
IT INTO OUR CENTRAL CWFA BY MIDNIGHT...THEN HOLDS IT RELATIVELY
STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. BELIEVE BEST SOLUTION IS A MIX. DRYLINE
WILL REMAIN OVER OUR CWFA WITH BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES. THUS...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES TONIGHT
WITH HIGHER NUMBERS AND MENTION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE EAST. TOMORROW
THROUGH MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE LOOKS GOOD FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES WHERE CHANCE LOOKS BEST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE LOOK GOOD. WITH DRYLINE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
QUESTIONABLE...WILL GO WITH SOUTH WINDS MOST ZONES.

EXTENDED...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY HOLDING THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...WILL INCREASE LOWS TO AROUND 60. OTHERWISE...WILL
CONTINUE DRY EXTENDED.

ABI 059/085/057/075 3222
SJT 058/088/057/078 3222
JCT 059/088/058/080 3322

.SJT...NONE.

HUBER

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-052315-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
225 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2001

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

A DRYLINE WILL INTERACT WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY PRESENT...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE ANOTHER
THREAT AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND TROPICAL. STORMS COULD PRODUCE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME...AND PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND LOW LYING
AREAS.

AREAS IN THE MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ARE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
SWEETWATER... BALLINGER...BRADY...SAN SABA LINE. THE REST OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING...THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL END.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSLBB. FORL
THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC. FOR THE NORTH
TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT FTWSPSFTW. FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT SATSPSSAT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.