Damaging Winds in Texas, May 28, 2001

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2001

MCS CONTINUES TREK ACROSS NORTH TX BUT HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN LAST HOUR
OR SO. CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT WEAKENED SYSTEM WILL PRIMARILY
IMPACT NERN THIRD OF CWA BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. 00Z ETA/MESOETA PICKED
UP ON MCS QUITE WELL BUT TOO SLOW ON FORWARD SPEED. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER NEAR NRN ZONES TODAY AND COULD
SERVE AS FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES OF AROUND 3000 AND PWS AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER
NERN ZONES TODAY. WILL PUT CHANCE POPS IN NRN ZONES TODAY AND LOW
POPS FOR HOU AREA.

FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER SE TX THROUGH TUESDAY WITH FCST
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT CAPPING BETWEEN 700 AND 900 MB
OVER ALL BUT NERN ZONES. ANOTHER SEVERE MCS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN
OVER TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK...TRACKING ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY TNGT.
MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS ERN TX WILL BE WEAKER AND ATMOSPHERE MORE
CAPPED THAN TONIGHT INDICATING LESS LIKELIHOOD THAT MCS WILL
PROPAGATE TOWARD CWA. WILL PUT LOW POPS FOR NERN ZONES FOR TNGT/TUE
FOR TSRA THAT COULD BRUSH THESE AREAS. 500 MB TROF MOVES ACROSS SRN
PLAINS LATE TUE KEEPING PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR MCS ACTIVITY OVER
NORTH TX TUE AFTN WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. SUMMER REGIME
TAKES OVER NEXT FEW DAYS WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO 90S OVER ALL BUT
COAST ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH HUMIDITY.

FOR EXTENDED...LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER UPPER MS VALLEY THU/FRI ALLOWING ANOTHER COOL FRONT
TO PUSH ACROSS TX. FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS SE TX OR ALONG COAST
THU THROUGH SAT PROVIDING CHANCE FOR TSRA. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS IN
EARNEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS.

35/46/DH

.HGX...SCEC FOR BAYS AND OFFSHORE.

PRELIMS...
CLL BB 094/071 092/072 092 311 NERN ZONES POPS 422
IAH BB 092/071 091/072 091 200
GLS BB 087/077 086/078 086 100

TXZ163-164-281100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
109 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR HOUSTON COUNTY AND TRINITY COUNTY
UNTIL 600 AM...

AN AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS JUST ENTERED NORTH TEXAS...AND
WAS RACING SOUTHEAST AT NEARLY 50 MPH. THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND HAS A HISTORY
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 80 MPH...AND LARGE HAIL.

THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS WOULD BRING THEM INTO HOUSTON
AND TRINITY COUNTIES AFTER ABOUT 400 AM.

BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. @MOVE INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS IF A
STORM APPROACHES.

END/46