Hail in Texas, May 26, 2001

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
315 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2001

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR MAF WITH OTHER SCATTERED TSTMS FROM CDS TO
HASKELL CNTY HEADING SEWD. THE STORMS ARE HEADING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLY INFLOW. THE
STORMS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINING THEIR STRENGTH ACCORDING TO RADAR AND
IR SATELLITE TRENDS...SO WILL LIKELY NEED TO MENTION SCATTERED TSTMS
IN AT LEAST THE NRN/WRN ZONES THIS MORNING.

TODAY...NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES BUT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE ABOUT 30 METERS AND THICKNESSES RISE
70-100 METERS FROM 00Z/SAT. AFTER THE MORNING CONVECTION DISSIPATES
OR MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE BEEN
WORKED OVER. A FRONT IS PROGGED TO EXTEND EWRD FROM A LOW OVER SE NM
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE TSTMS ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...BUT THE WRN EXTENT OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED BY THE CAPPING INVERSION. BELIEVE AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE BIG COUNTRY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
90S AREAWIDE.

TONIGHT...STORMS THAT FORM ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL DRIFT
SEWD AND MAY CLIP THE BIG COUNTRY IN THE EVENING WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACROSS THE ERN BIG COUNTRY. LITTLE CHANCE OF TSTMS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

SUNDAY...UPPER WINDS BECOME MORE WLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EWRD. ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE ZONES...WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS TSTM FORMATION DESPITE HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100. WARMER NGM MOS HIGHS LOOK BETTER.

MEMORIAL DAY/TUESDAY...THE 5920 METER UPPER RIDGE PARKS RIGHT OVER
SRN TX ON MONDAY AND CONTINUED VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVENT TSTM FORMATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK BUT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE TOLERABLE AS THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOONS.

ABI 091/067/094 320
SJT 094/067/098 300
JCT 092/068/096 100

.SJT...NONE.

RUBIN

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-261530-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
530 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2001

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LITTLE OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAIgNS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSLBB. FOR
THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC. FOR THE NORTH
TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT FTWSPSFTW. FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT SATSPSSAT.

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