Damaging Wind in Texas, June 14, 2001

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
205 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

SYN..TROF FROM H7 TO H5 WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRI.  THE TROF WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES E.  THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS TROF WILL
CAUSE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  BY LATE SAT..RIDGING FROM H7 TO H5
WILL RESUME ACROSS THE AREA.

DISC..COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON LINED UP FROM CHILDRESS (KCDS) TO
SOUTH OF LUBBOCK (KLBB) TO NORTH OF WINK (KINK).  DRYLINE OUT AHEAD
OF THE ACTUAL FRONT.  SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT PACKING SEEN IN THE MSAS
DATA ACROSS THIS AREA.  AS TSRA DEVELOP AND MOVE E..BOUNDARIES ARE
LIKELY TO SHIFT SWRD AND THIS COULD INITIATE SHRA/TSRA LATE
TONIGHT.  MAIN THREAT OF PCPN SHD COME ON FRI (ALTHOUGH SLIM ATTM).
SHD CONT TO SEE A DECREASE ON THE LOW LVL MOISTURE WHILE MID AND
UPPER LVL MOISTURE SHOWS AN INCREASE.  LOOKS AS IF SOME LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE AND WE COULD STILL SEE
SLGT CHCS FOR PCPN INTO THE WEEKEND.  MID AND UPPER LVL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL MID JUNE VALUES WITH WINDS
BECMG MORE ERLY AS FRONTS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND SFC HIGH
SLIDES TOWARDS THE SERN U.S.  WITH LESS LOW LVL MOISTURE AND LIGHTER
WINDS..MIN TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 70S.  AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE CLOSE TO RECENT VALUES.

EXTENDED..NOGAPS/MRF INDICATE A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
MOST OF NEXT WEEK..WITH RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN TIER.  AVN/MRF SHOW A
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTO S TX ON MON WITH A
POCKET OF HIGHER PWATS.  WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE THE MENTION OF AT
LEAST SLGT CHC POPS ON MON.

MARINE...WILL MAINTAIN SCA THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE BAYS AND ALL
NIGHT OFFSHORE. WINDS ACROSS THE BAYS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...
FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA. LLJ AND HIGH SEAS WILL MAINTAIN SCA
CONDITIONS OFFSHORE. THE GRADIENT RELAXES FRI AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES INTO S CENTRAL TX. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE E BY SUNDAY AS A
SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH PRESS SLIDES TOWARD THE SE U.S. AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT AN ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT...HOWEVER
NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN MARINE ZONES. BY SUN...BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESS FCST TO MOVE INTO NW GULF...WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

PRELIMS FOLLOW...
CRP 078/091 075/092 072 1211
VCT 076/091 074/092 071 2312
LRD 079/098 076/097 075 1211

MSL..73 / TME..81

.CRP...SCA GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275.