Flash Flooding in Texas, August 30 to 31, 2001

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
225 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2001

SYN..H5 TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU MAJORITY OF THIS FCST PKG.
THIS WILL KEEP A SWLY FLOW ALOFT..PLUS ALLOW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO
CONT TO RIDE ACROSS THE REGION.  WITH DIFLUENCE STILL OVER THE AREA
WILL CONT TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA.

DISC..ANOTHER WET DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA.  PWATS FROM BRO AND CRP
00Z SOUNDING SHOWED 2.47 AT BRO AND 2.45 AT CRP.  WITH PROFILE
SATURATED ANY DISTURBANCE WILL INITIATE CONVECTION.  AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE SINCE THIS PCPN EVENT BEGAN..MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
ACROSS ERN SECT OF THE FCST AREA VS THE W.  WILL TAPER POPS FROM W
TO E BASED ON THIS THINKING.  RADAR IS CURRENTLY SHOWING BANDS OF
SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE COAST AND MARCHING N..AND MOVG INLAND JUST N OF
CRP.  GROUND IS BECMG INCREASINGLY SATURATED..ESPECIALLY ERN
AREAS..BUT STILL ENOUGH BREAKS..LACK OF BOUNDARY TO FOCUS PCPN AND
STEADY MOVMT TO PCPN..THEREFORE WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
WITH PWATS REMAINING HIGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE PCPN TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE WATCH.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PCPN WILL BECOME MORE
SCT IN NATURE THUS FURTHER DIMINISHING THE THREAT FOR FLOODING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAVE TO ISSUE SOME URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES AT SOME POINT TODAY.

TEMPS AGAIN TRICKY WITH MOIST GROUND..ON GOING PCPN AND WHERE DO
BREAKS OCCUR  WINDS SHD REMAIN SELY..BUT VRBL AND GUSTY IN OR NEAR
STORMS.

EXTENDED..WILL SEE SOMEWHAT OF A DECREASE IN THE PCPN OVER THE
WEEKEND..BUT LIKELY TO SEE SEA BREEZE TYPE ACTIVITY.  TEMPS WILL
REBOUND WITH ADDITIONAL LATE AUGUST SUNSHINE..BUT BE HELD BACK IN
AREAS WHERE SIGNIFICANT PCPN HAS FALLEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
MAY NEED TO ADJUST THE EXTENDED BASED ON LATER DATA..BUT FOR NOW
WILL NOT INDICATE MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED.

MARINE...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SHRAS/TSRAS WL BE THIS
MORNING AS A WK JET STREAK MOVES TO OUR NORTH...PLACING THE AREA IN
THE RRQ AND DECENT DIV ALOFT.  THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH PWATS ABV 2 INCHES...CONVECTION WL NOT BE
HARD TO GENERATE.  CONVECTION WL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
AFTER TDA AS THE PWATS SLOWLY COME DOWN AND THE DYNAMICS WEAKEN.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PERSISTENT MID/UPR TROUGH AXIS REMAINING TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA AND WITH PWATS REMAINING AROUND 2 INCHES...AT LEAST
WDLY SCT CONVECTION WL BE POSSIBLE.  A COLD FNT WL LKLY WASH OUT
BEFORE REACHING THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WL INCREASE RAIN
CHCS.  ONSHORE FLOW WL BE GENERALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PD.  DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY FLAGS ATTM.

PRELIM NUMS..
CRP TT 087/076 089/076 091 745
VCT TT 074/085 075/091 076 856
LRD EE 074/093 077/097 077 323

.CRP...NONE.

MSL..73 / MB..80

TXZ229>234-239>247-302100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
425 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2001

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT...

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHILE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 1 INCH IN MANY AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE
EAST OF AN ALICE TO GOLIAD LINE.

WHILE MANY AREAS OF SOUTH TEXAS HAVE RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINS THE
PAST FEW DAYS...THE SOIL IS STILL NOT YET SATURATED.  THEREFORE...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD...
AS THE RAINFALL...WHEN HEAVY...CONTINUES TO BE BRIEF AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.  IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS...ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST...THEN FLOODING MAY BECOME MORE OF A THREAT AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.

HOWEVER...NUISANCE URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING
AREAS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.  THEREFORE...MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO
DRIVE WITH CAUTION WHEN ENCOUNTERING WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.
REMEMBER TO NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH WATER THAT COVERS A
ROADWAY.  MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN ON SLICK ROADWAYS AND ALLOW
EXTRA STOPPING DISTANCE BETWEEN YOURSELF AND THE AUTOMOBILES IN FRONT
OF YOU.

RAINFALL CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

FOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS AND WARNINGS...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP