Damaging Winds in Tennessee, November 28 to 29, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
156 PM CST WED NOV 28 2001

STATIONARY FRONT ALONG ROUGHLY A NE/SW LINE THRU TUP THIS AFTN. KNQA
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF MDT-HVY PRECIP POISED TO MOVE INTO WRN PART OF
THE CWFA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SFC BOUNDARY WL MOVE SLIGHTLY
NWWD OVRNGT AS UPR TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF TX. STRONG OVERRUNNING
WL CONT ACRS THE BOUNDARY OVRNGT WL RESULT IN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA. MAY BE SOME TSTMS S OF THE BNDRY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. N OF THE BNDRY SOME ELEVATED TSTMS POSSIBLE ALSO. TEMPS WL
BE TRICKY OVRNGT AS FNT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH FRONT MOVES TO THE NW.

VIGOROUS UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE TX TH AFTN...BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TITLED. LOW WL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE ACRS NE MS AND ALONG THE TN RIVER
IN THE AFTN. TREMENDOUS UVV ASSOCD WITH SYSTEM THANKS TO AN ENORMOUS
AMOUNT OF PVA. EXPECT RAIN...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BNDRY
MAINLY ACRS NE MS THU AFTN. MANY FACTORS COME TOGETHER FOR NE MS WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON. WL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS IN ZONES.

TROF MOVES QUICKLY NEWD ON THU NIGHT AND PRECIP WL END BY MIDNIGHT.
SKIES WL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH PLENTY OF LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND.

DRY SW FLOW ON FRI. A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE N ON SATURDAY AND
MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS. SUN-TUE LOOKS DRY WITH FAST
ZONAL FLOW. CHC OF RAIN WED AS SFC HI MOVES OFF THE SE COAST AND
SOME OVERRUNNING DEVELOPS.

.MEG...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY ENTIRE CWFA.
SJM