Flood in South Dakota, March 14, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
409 AM CST WED MAR 14 2001

WELL IT LOOKS LIKE THE MDLS ALL HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE STRONG
COMPACT UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM C MT THIS MRNG INTO
W NEB BY 00Z THIS EVENING AND INTO NC KS BY 12Z THURS MRNG. THE AVN
IS THE FARTHEST TO THE N WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. THUSLY
THE AVN HAS ITS QPF FARTHEST TO THE N. THE AVN BRINGS SOME GOOD QPF
TO C SD TONIGHT WHILE THE ETA BRINGS VERY LITTLE. THE NGM IS IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO MDLS. OVERALL...DO EXPECT MUCH OF C SD TO HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR TODAY ACROSS THE
CWA...THE S/W ACROSS E SD EARLY THIS MRNG WILL MOVE OUT TAKING THE
MID CLOUDS WITH IT WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AGAIN MOVE INTO THE C
AND NC BY AFTN WITH THE NEXT STRONG UPPER LOW. WITH A STRONG
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS C AND W SD TODAY...WINDS WILL
BECOME NE AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
AFTN. WITH A BREAK BETWEEN S/WS...THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF SS
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MRNG. THEREFORE...TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO
WARM UP THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS C AND NC SD WHERE THERE IS
LITTLE OR NO SNOWCOVER. ALSO...WITH GOOD LIFT MOVING INTO C AND NC
SD THIS AFTN ALONG WITH GOOD INSTABLITIY ALOFT...SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. 850-700MB THICKNESSES LOWER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS C AND ND SD...THERERFORE THERE SHOULD BE A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW.

FOR TONIGHT...SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF C SD AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE ANYWHERE FROM A 30 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. AS THE SFC PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN...IT WILL BECOME WINDY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 DEGREE
RANGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY...LL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ALONG WITH SOME CAA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND A COLDER DAY THAN
TODAY. IN FACT...IT SHOULD BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN
TODAY. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A FEW FLURRIES FALLING FROM THE LOW
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD BE BRISK OR WINDY ACROSS THE CWA ON THURS WITH
DECREASING WINDS LATER IN THE DAY.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP SOME ACROSS C AND NC SD
AS HIGH PRES SETTlLES OVER. IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA. WITH LIGHT WINDS...AREAS OF FOG LOOK TO BE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY ACROSS C AND NC SD. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 15 TO 25
DEGREE RANGE.

.ABR...NONE

MOHR