Sleet in South Carolina, March 20, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
300 AM EST TUE MAR 20 2001

MAJOR FEATURES OF THE NEXT 24HRS ARE THE INCREDIBLE WARM ADVECTION
IN LOW TO MID LEVELS AND THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION.
HEAVY SNOW IS STILL THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.  HAVE
RESERVATIONS WITH REGARD TO DURATION.  STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING WHICH
CERTAINLY CONTRIBUTE TO EARLY HEAVY SNOW MIGHT NOT BE BE SUSTAINABLE
GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM ADVECTION.  THIS WOULD PRECLUDE HIGH
SNOW AMOUNTS BELOW ABOUT 3000 FEET.  FURTHERMORE...THE PRECIP MIGHT
TURN TO RAIN BEFORE THE UPPER END OF POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CAN
BE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...WILL UPGRADE ENTIRE WATCH AREA TO WINTER
STORM WARNING.  06Z GSO SOUNDING REMAINS QUITE WARM.  EVAPORATIVE
COOLING WILL SURELY BRING THICKNESS DOWN BUT IF WARM ADVECTION KICKS
IN BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES...COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE IN THE NW
PIEDMONT WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATER TODAY RATHER
THAN SNOW.  STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 850MB ANYWHERE FROM 45  TO
75KTS...DEPENDING ON MODEL.  EXPECT TO SEE SOME OF THAT AT THE
SURFACE.  WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES NOT IN WINTER STORM
WARNING AND WILL GO WITH HIGH WIND WARNING COUPLED WITH STORM
WARNING.  AND FINALLY...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS PRETTY GOOD
IN SOUTHERN ZONES AND WILL MENTION FROM ELBERT TO CHESTER COUNTIES.

PROLONGED RAIN EVENT MIGHT CAUSE SOME FLOODING BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE
WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT.  RIVERS VERY LOW AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HANDLE 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN BUT THIS MUCH COULD CAUSE LOCAL PROBLEMS.
WILL LEAVE FLOOD WATCH ASSESSMENT TO DAY SHIFT.              DELGADO

.GSP...
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR GAZ010-017.
     HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT GAZ010-017
     WIND ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TODAY/TONIGHT NCZ033>035-048>056-058>
     059-062>067.
     HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY/TONIGHT NCZ033-048>053-058>059-062>065.
     WIND ADVISORY TODAY/TONIGHT NCZ036-037-057-069>072-082.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY/TONIGHT SCZ001>003.
     HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY/TONIGHT SCZ001>003.
     WIND ADVISORY TODAY/TONIGHT SCZ004014-019.

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GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-201600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
406 AM EST TUE MAR 20 2001

...HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...

THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY
WILL BRING A VARIETY OF WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.  ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TOCCOA
GEORGIA...TO GREENVILLE SOUTH CAROLINA...TO SHELBY AND STATESVILLE
NORTH CAROLINA...ONE OF THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL.

BY EARLY TONIGHT...A NUMBER OF PLACES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
MAY HAVE RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS.  MUCH OF THIS RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER A LONG TIME
PERIOD...REDUCING THE THREAT OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.  HOWEVER...SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR IN THE PIEDMONT...WHICH COULD CAUSE
RAINFALL RATES TO APPROACH EXCESSIVE LEVELS.

SOME FLOOD PRONE AREAS...SUCH AS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...PARTS OF
GREENVILLE AND SPARTANBURG...AND AREAS FROM GREENWOOD SOUTH
CAROLINA...TO UNION SOUTH CAROLINA...AND MONROE NORTH
CAROLINA...COULD HAVE URBAN FLOOD PROBLEMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL OCCUR TODAY...THE HEAVY RAIN
COULD LOOSEN WEAKENED TREES...CAUSING THEM TO FALL ACROSS ROADWAYS.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS CWOULD BECOME NECESSARY
LATER TODAY.

JONES