Excessive Heat in Rhode Island, May 12, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
214 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2001

...WELL DEFINED POTENTIALLY ANOMALOUS TREND TO BLO NORMAL CHILL FOR
THE PERIOD OF 5/16-19 BEFORE WE GO BACK TO NORMAL OR ABV NORMAL
WARMTH IN DVLPG PROGRESSIVE FLOW STARTING 5/20-21...

MARINE: NO SCA SHORT TERM.  IN THE LONGER RANGE..NOTICING
        CONSIDERABLE ELY FETCH DVLPG IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME NEAR
        N SCOTIA.  WE "MAY" START SEEING SCA SWELL MOVE ASHORE
        MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... THIS SUPPORTED BY 5/11 00Z MRF
        ENSEMBLE MSLP PATTERN.

SVR: MARGINAL RISK APPEARS TO ME TO B GREATER THAN 4/24 DUE TO
     NO FCST ISOTHERMAL CAP NEAR 10-11K THIS TIME ARD.
     WBZ NR 9K...EL 25K...KI UP TO 34..TT LOWER 50S SWI -1 AND
     SWEAT 250.  CAPE LOOKS A LITTLE LOW. FOR HI TENTATIVELY
     ETA FCST 0 AT 10K AND -20 AT 21K. FIRST LIGTHNING EITHER AT 30DB
     ABV 16K (-10) OR SHORLY AFTR 20 DB ABV 21K.

SKYWARN: MAY NEED ASSISTANCE IN I 91..I84 AND I495 CORRIDORS ORH-LWM
         AND THEN I 93 ASH-MHT.

         TIMING OF GREATEST INSTAB VIA PARMS (TT/LI/KI/SWI/SWEAT)
         BAF/BDL/ORH: 19-21Z.  MHT 21Z.

NO BIG SPIKE ON THE 00Z-12Z RUNS OF THE ETA BUT FORCING SUGGESTS
TIMING WITHIN 45 MINUTES OF ABV LISTED WILL B PRETTY GOOD FOR WORST
CONVECTION. NOW ITS ALL UP TO ETA MODEL TRENDS. MHT LOOKS MOST
UNSTABLE AND HAS BEST WAA AND SUSPECT SVR RISK IS ON REGION SOMEWHERE
MHT-ASH-FIT-LWM WITH SMW POTENTIAL ESSEX COUNTY MA.

LOW LVL WINDS FIELDS NADA FOR SVR. HAVE A LONG NARROW CAPE AND MAX
WINDS NR 40 KT 15-18K. MARGINAL CASE.

DRYNESS: AS MANY ARE AWARE... MOST OF SNE EXCEPT PARTS CC...LESS THAN
         0.25 SINCE APRIL 12.  PCT SUNSHINE AT MQE FIRST 8 DAYS OF
         MAY 89 PCT! AND 75 PCT THERE SINCE APRIL 14.

QPF: PW 1.4"   NOT OVERPLAYING QPF IN DRY BEGETS DRY SITN BUT ISO
               1" POSSIBLE IN MHT-ASH-ORH-BDL CORRIDOR.

NO RAIN (MINIMAL 30 PCT RISK) FCST PVD-BOS SEWD EXCEPT 50 PCT FOR CC
AND ISLANDS PER AVN NR 06Z SUNDAY.

FWX - FUEL MOISTURES REMAIN VRY LO...AND TEMPS IN MID-UPR 80S SAT
      1 PM EDT WITH DWPTS 50S BRING RH VALUES TO ARD 30 PCT WITH
      GUSTY WIND TO 15 OR 18 KT. NOT RED FLAG. SO FAR..IT APPEARS
      THIS AFTNIS BEHAVING INTS ITS WIND FIELDS.

LR: STG -NAO AND POS PNA TRENDS OVR THE NEXT WEEK SUGGEST SIG COASTAL
    LOW AND LARGE COLD CANADIAN HIGH TO THE NORTH. FAIRLY OPTIMISTIC
    FOR SOMETHING COLD AND DAMP IN SNE ~5/18...IF NOT SOONER. IT
    COULD BE UGLY DAMP/WET COLD HERE IF IT MATERIALIZES...AND AGAIN
    IF IT WERE TO MATERIALIZE..NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO ENVISION A FEW WET
    SNOWFLAKES HIGH TERRAIN ORH HILLS BUT LETS SEE IF cWE CAN GET A
    PRETTY GOOD COASTAL LOW GOING FIRST.  BOTTOM LINE... I THINK THE
    BEAUTIFUL SPRING/EARLY SUMMER WX IS DONE HERE AFTER TUE THE
    15TH.

.BOX...NONE.

DRAG