Rip Current in California, May 12, 2001

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT SAT MAY 12 2001

                             ...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL BRING MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH TODAY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ONSHORE FLOW AND THE
MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...FAIR THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

                            ...DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS/LOCAL FOG INTO COASTAL AREAS AND INLAND VALLEYS THIS AM. LOTS
OF MID/HI CLOUDS IN SLY FLOW ALOFT AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND. 12Z
NKX SOUNDING HAD INVERSION BASED NEAR 1800 FT WITH SSE WINDS INCREASING
TO 35 KT AT 700 MB AND ABOUT 50 KT NEAR 500 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN
FROM 00Z ON KNKX SOUNDING. ONSHORE GRADIENTS WITH OVER 6 MB SAN-IPL.

UPPER LOW TO OUR SW OPENS UP AND MOVES NE TODAY WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK
VORT MAXIMA SWINGING THROUGH SRN CA. THE FIRST VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH
AROUND 00Z AND A SECOND...WEAKER ONE EARLY SUNDAY AM. THE BROAD AREA OF
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVE BUT THIS MAY ACTUALLY
HELP THUNDERSTORMS FORM OVER MOUNTAINS/DESERTS. OTHERWISE...SHOULD
CONTINUE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN CWFA. SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH WEAK HANG BACK TROUGH MONDAY. WARMER IN MOUNTAINS/DESERTS SUNDAY
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH WILL PROBABLY STILL BE SOME AFTERNOON
CU OVER MOUNTAINS. MORE WARMING MONDAY WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS...ALTHOUGH
THICKNESS/850 MB TEMPS ONLY INCREASE A LITTLE. NOT A LOT OF TEMP CHANGE
W OF MOUNTAINS DUE TO MARINE INFLUENCE.

LONGER RANGE PROGS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER NEAR THE W
COAST FOR NEAR SEASONAL WEATHER. PERHAPS A LITTLE COOLER TOWARD THE END
OF NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH.

SAN 22-

.SAN...NONE.

ATKIN