Drought in Pennsylvania, November 6 to 30, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
300 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2001

VERY DRY PAT WILL CONT FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE. CLSD LOW SE OF
CAPE COD LIFTS NEWD RETURNING A ZONAL FLOW TO THE ERN U.S BY WED. A
WEAK BACKDOOR CDFNT TRIES TO MOVE SWD BY THU MRNG B4 LIFTING NEWD.

AS PER LATEST PMDHMD WE WILL GO WITH SLOR AVN SOLN OF LIFTING THE
CLSD LO NEWD. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX...IT SHOULD NOT MAKE A DIF.
THIN SC DECK SLOWLY ERODING. STILL HAS A FLASH POINT FROM LK ONT.
SO WE WILL BE MNTNG SOME AM CLDS IN NW ZNS. SHLD BE GONE BY LATE
THIS MRNG AS THE INV SINKS BLO H9...SHRT WV MOVES EWD AND CAA
CEASES. MRNG AIR MASS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE. BASED ON CUR MAXT
MACROS BLV GUID MAX TEMPS A BIT TOO WARM.

GIVEN SLGTLY SLOR AVN SOLN WOULD CONT ARGUEMENT FOR WINDS NOT TO
COMPLETELY DECOUPLE TNGT. BNDRY LYR WINDS FCSTD BTWN 15-20KTS IN
NEBULOUS RNG FOR DECOUPLING. BUT DEWPTS ARE NOT TERRIBLY LOW. WE
WILL GO BLO GUID IN VLY ZNS WHERE SOME DECOUPLING SHLD OCR LATE.  WE
WILL GO CLSR TO GUID ELSW. SKIES S/B CLR.

BACKDOOR FNT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE CWA ON WED. THE MDLS...ESP THE
ETA SUG SOME MSTR MAY BECOME TRAPPED BLO NEXT DVLPG INVERSION. CUR
PLANS ARE TO FCST PTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR NRN ZNS AND GO WITH A SLGTLY
MORE OPTIM MO SUNNY FOR SRN ZNS. ETA/AVN FCSTG A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS NR THIS FNTL BNDRY...BUT ALL THE FCSTD MSTR FOR WED & WED
NGT IS AOB H8...SO DON/T SEE ANY MSRBL OCRG. ETA MAXT MACRO LEANS
TWD WRMR NGM MOS AND WILL FOLLOW.

WAA INDCD CLDS SHLD MAINLY STAY N OF THE CWA WED NGT AND NEXT CFP IS
STILL SLATED FOR THU NGT. THERE APRS TO BE ENUF MSTR TO CONT THE
PCPN CHCS FOR THU NGT...BUT JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSORS THE OVRNGT
TIMING AND CDFNT MOVG INTO A DRY AIR MASS SHLD MAKE THIS ANOTHER
TENTH HERE/TENTH THERE EVENT. H5 RDG FCSTD TO RMN IN MIDDLE OF
COUNTRY WITH NEXT SHRTWV/CDFNT DIVING SEWD IN NW FLOW ON SAT. THIS
MIGHT WARRANT A CHC OF ANOTHER LOW QPF EVENT FOR SAT IF THE TROF
SHRPNS ANY FTHR. ATTM FAN/FMR GUID IS STILL DRY AND WILL CONT DRY
CFP FCST.

MARINE: SCA WILL BE CONT AS GRAD RMNS TIGHT AND COLD AIR CONTS TO
POUR OVER THE WRMR WATER.

.PHI...
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SCA FOR DE BAY AND CSTL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO
         FENWICK IS DE.

TFG