Heat in Pennsylvania, July 9 to 10, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2001

WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF MORNING FOG AND UP TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
A NOTCH OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

ZEV

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BOUNDRY CONTINUES TO MOVE SE THROUGH CWA...AND ANY REMAINING PRECIP
SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT...FOG WILL BE OF CONCERN THIS MORNING. ESPECIALLY
SINCE DEW POINTS ARE NOT DROPPING OFF BEHIND THE BOUNDRY. ALSO...
THE GROUND IS SATURATED IN LOCATIONS WHICH RECEIVED RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT.

AFTERNOON CU SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOW 80S. GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN TOO WARM OF LATE...SO HAVE
UNDERCUT DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY JUST A BIT. TRANQUIL WEATHER TONIGHT
WITH W-NW FLOW. SINCE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WOULD EXPECT SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND HAVE ONCE AGAIN GONE UNDER GUIDANCE
WITH LOWS. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AGAIN...BUT THERE IS LESS MOISTURE
TONIGHT AND DO NOT BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE ZONES ATTM.

H8 TEMPS ABOUT 1.5 DEG C WARMER ON TUE COMPARED TO MON AS SW FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE TOWARD THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY
TUE...BUT MODELS NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH TIMING. THE AVN IS THE
QUICKEST...AS IT MOVES THE FRONT OFFSHORE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE ETA
ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE FRONT OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK
WED. THE SLOWER ETA IS THE PREFERRED MODEL IN THIS CASE GIVEN THAT
IT/S TIMING WAS BEST WITH THE BOUNDRY CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE H8 JET IS POSITIONED OVER THE CWA TUE
NIGHT...AS WELL AS DECENT UVV/S. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD DEAL OF
INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT ON TUE...AND THE ATMOSPHERE ACTUALLY
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. ETA BUFKIT
GENERATES AN LI OF -5...TT OF 52...CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1800 AND
HELICITY VALUES OVER 250 LATE IN THE EVENING TUE IN PHL. AVN REMAINS
MORE STABLE...WITH LI/S FOR EXAMPLE REACHING AS LOW AS -3 IN PHL.
EITHER WAY...THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE A GOOD BET ATTM WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

IN THE EXTENDED...LEFT FRONT QUAD OF H8 JET REMAINS OVER THE CWA
ON WED. WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND AN AREA OF LIFT MOVING THROUGH FROM
THE WEST...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD A CHC OF TSRA/S DURING WED AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL BUT THE SRN ZONES WHERE IT APPEARS TO BE MORE STABLE
(LI/S +8 COMPARED TO +2 NORTH). OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

NOTHING ON THEE MARINE.

.PHI...NONE.

JAQ

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>023-
PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-091300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
500 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2001

...AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING...

AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF A
MOIST AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES. THE FOG WILL LOWER VISIBILITES
ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITIES
DROPPING BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES. THE FOG WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
BY MID-MORNING.

MOTORISTS SHOULD DRIVE WITH CAUTION AND ALLOW ADDITIONAL TRAVEL
TIME. USE LOW BEAMS...REDUCE DRIVING SPEED...AND ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
ROOM BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER CARS.

JAQ