Flash Flooding and Hail in Oklahoma, June 14, 2001

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

FORECAST A LITTLE BEHIND SCHED DUE TO MID-AFTERNOON UPDATE. MAIN
PROBLEM FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF TSRA TONIGHT. MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BACK EDGE OF STORMS WILL MOVE SE ACROSS
THE AREA... ENDING BEFORE 6Z AT KTUL AND AROUND 12Z ACROSS FAR SE
ZONES. COULD SEE LINGERING POST-FRONTAL PRECIP IN THE VERY SE CORNER
OF CWA AFTER 12Z BUT CHANCE MAY BE TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR 2ND
PERIOD. AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WILL BE ACROSS SERN OK AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. STORMS
SHOULD NOT GET TO NW AR UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN INSTABILITY WILL
BE DECREASED FROM AFTERNOON LEVELS. MOST SVR STORMS AND TORNADO
THREAT MAY STAY WEST OF CWA ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH SOME THREAT IN SE OK AFTER 8PM. WITH TOR
WATCH IN EFFECT AND SPORADIC SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED IN CWA HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF SVR POSSIBLE IN ZFP.

AFTER FROPA...WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER AND DRIER IN THE MORNING WITH
PATCHY FOG. WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BUT HUMIDITIES WILL BE
LOWER SO IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE BEARABLE COMPARED WITH THE LAST
FEW DAYS. DRY AIR WILL BE GONE AFTER TOMORROW AS SLY SFC FLOW RETURN
SO ENJOY FRIDAY WHILE IT LASTS.

LOOKED AT MODELS AGAIN FOR LATER PERIODS AND APPEARS THAT FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THUS ANY
STORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A VERY HARD TIME MAKING IT
THIS FAR SOUTH. SLY FLOW WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA. STORMS SHOULD STAY ALONG
AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT EVEN WITH WNWLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS
SHOULD BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FCSTID = 26
TUL   64  89  63  91 /  60   0   0   0
FSM   65  88  62  92 /  80  10   0   0
MLC   65  88  63  92 /  70  10   0   0
BVO   60  86  61  89 /  60   0   0   0
FYV   61  83  57  87 /  80  10   0   0
BYV   61  83  56  87 /  80  10   0   0
MIO   62  86  63  88 /  70   0   0   0
MKO   64  88  66  91 /  60   0   0   0
F10   64  88  66  91 /  60   0   0   0
HHW   68  88  63  91 /  70  10   0   0

.TSA...
AR...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR ALL ZONES.
OK...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR ALL ZONES.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
   AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR BARTLESVILLE...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO
NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ALONG FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS
THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING...INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.  IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE AIRMASS HAS
BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED INDICES APPROACHING -10 DEGREES C
AND CAPE VALUES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...GIVEN THE HIGH
INSTABILITIES IN PLACE...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE LINEAR IN NATURE AS THEY MOVE INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS EVENING...INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY AS
THESE STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY

THREAT AREA 1...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...100
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...90
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...80

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE 1IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE
AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
335 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1205 PM    PAWHUSKA                  OK    60 MPH TSTM GUST
06/14/01   OSAGE                           EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
                                           REPORT. 60 MPH WIND
                                           GUSTS WITH TREE DAMAGE.

DRM