Damaging Wind in Oklahoma, August 22, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
337 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2001

IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM NEAR 4 CORNERS WILL PLAY A ROLE HERE LATER IN
WEEK. MEANTIME SHORTWAVE EJECTING NE ACROSS W TX AHEAD OF IT LOOKED
GOOD ON MORNING UA ANALYSES AND HAS ENHANCED MID/HI CLOUDINESS OVER
W TX/OK ALL DAY. CONTINUING MOISTURE FEED SUGGESTS THAT ONGOING
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INCREASING AND SPREAD NE, AND WILL LAST AT
LEAST INTO THIS EVENING. CHANCE POPS WITH AREAL COVERAGE WORDING WILL BE
USED TONIGHT OVER ALL BUT THE SE, BUT SINCE MODELS INDICATE LITTLE
IN WAY OF ORGANIZED MID-LEVEL LIFT, AND SINCE THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO
BOUNDARIES TO PROVIDE LIFT AT LOW LEVELS, CONVECTION SHOULD BE
DIURNAL AND MOST OF IT SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY.

4-CORNERS LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY E INTO KS/NEB ON THU AHEAD OF
STRONG TROF NOW OVER E PAC. WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS ACROSS N/W PARTS OF
AREA THU BASED ON MODEL/HPC QPFS, MOS POPS, AND CONTINUITY W/PREV
FORECAST. HOWEVER, WITH SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS KS,
MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE THU AND
THU NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR N WHERE UPPER SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING
LLJ WILL INTERACT WITH SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED POOLING OF
MOISTURE. HIGHER POPS CONTINUE IN N THU NIGHT AS KS CONVECTION MAY
TRY TO MOVE/BUILD S DURING EVENING. LOW POPS FRI ARE MAINLY FOR ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN DAY.

PATTERN CHANGE THEREAFTER FAVORS COOLER AND HOPEFULLY WETTER, AS THE
E-PAC TROF MERGES WITH CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM TO FORCE RETROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER HI INTO THE SW. THIS SETS UP ANOTHER NW FLOW PATTERN,
WHICH ACCORDING TO MRF MAY LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCE THIS
TIME IS A MORE NNW FLOW ALOFT BEING ADVERTIZED, VS WNW LAST WEEK.
THIS REGIME NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR PROLONGED CHANCES OF PRECIP
HERE, AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT - WHICH MOVES INTO OR THRU AREA ON
SAT - MAY CONTINUE S AND FOCUS MUCH OF THE ACTION W AND/OR S
OF AREA. THUS NOT TOO HIGH ON CPC HAZARD OUTLOOK OF POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING IN AREA BEGINNING SUN. BUT, CERTAINLY CANNOT
RULE IT OUT, AND EVOLVING PATTERN AT LEAST MAY RELIEVE DRY
CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF AREA. BEST CHANCES LIKELY TO BE SAT, WITH
AND JUST BEHIND FRONT. WILL LOWER TEMPS NEARER TO MRF GUIDANCE
VALUES, I.E., LOWS IN 60S AND HIGHS IN UPPER 80S OVER MUCH OF AREA.

FCSTID = 24
OKC   75  97  73  95 /  30  20  30  20
HBR   74  98  73  97 /  40  20  30  20
SPS   77 100  74  98 /  40  10  20  20
GAG   74  97  69  95 /  30  30  50  20
PNC   76  99  74  96 /  30  30  50  20
DUA   75  95  73  94 /  10  10  20  20

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.