Hail in Ohio, May 11, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
310 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2001

CAP IS FINALLY BREAKING OVER CWA AND CONVECTION FORMING ALONG WEAK
CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES AT SFC CAUSED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND
POSSIBLY SOME LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS FROM LAST NIGHTS STORMS IN THE
MIDWEST.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THOUGH A ETA HOLDING BACK ON THE ACTUAL
FRONT A LITTLE BETTER THAN NGM/AVN. REGARDLESS...FROPA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NW-SE AND DID NOT TRY TO GET FANCY WITH POPS
TONIGHT. WENT 70-80 ACROSS THE BOARD AND COULD SEE AN ISOLATED CASE
OF SEVERE THIS PM WITH DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL. MOST
MODELS INDICATING SPLIT DYNAMICS OVER FCST AREA WITH A GOOD SHOT TO
THE NORTH WITH DECENT S/W ALONG H5 TROF. ANOTHER SHOT TO SOUTHWEST
COMBINES A WEAKER S/W WITH LLVL CONVERGENCE AS SFC FRONT GETS BUTTED
UP AGAINST RIDGE OVER WESTERN APPALACHIANS.

WAS CONCERNED ABOUT LACK OF QPF NOTED IN CVG/DAY AREA FROM MESOETA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND STILL FEEL THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION HERE IS GOING TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
HEATING. SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
NIGHT...BUT THUNDER SHOULD BE SEVERELY HAMPERED ACROSS MUCH OF FCST
AREA WITH SETTING OF THE SUN.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS AND KEPT A SILENT 10/20 POP IN THE
EAST TOMORROW MORNING.

EXPECT SOME CU TOMORROW...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S. AM WITHIN A CATEGORY OF MOS BUT UNDERCUT BY
A DEGREE OR TWO FOR FIRST FEW PERIODS.

MISILN ALREADY OUT AND ZONES TO COME BY 3:30.

.ILN...NONE.

FRANKS