Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, May 11, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
235 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2001

LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE WEATHER NIGHT AS COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AS CONVECTION FORMS
ALONG AND BEHIND/PUSHES FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN UNCAPPED
ATMOSPHERE. UPSLOPE FLOW AND SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTION CHANCES THIS
EVENING IN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING
SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THESE
SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD
AROUND UPPER RIDGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
FRONT WILL BE IMPACTING THAT AREA LONGEST AND RATHER SLOW STEERING WINDS.

WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WITH
DYING FRONT WITH NO CAP AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROUNDING RIDGE IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE STALLED IN THE NORTHERN
OR CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN AND WILL HIT POPS HIGHEST IN THESE AREAS.

WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND FRONT CONTINUES TO BECOME
DIFFUSE. DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS FRONT LOOKS TO BE GONE AND ATMOSPHERE PROGGED TO BECOME
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE STABLE.

IN THE EXTENDED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
MID LEVEL WARMING. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THOUGH WOULD NOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED TERRAIN.

THE PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE BELOW IS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY.
OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE WEST TEXAS/SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO ZONE FORECAST.

MAF  62/84/58/88  432-
LSA  58/81/56/86  542-
E41  62/85/59/88  432-
6R6  63/86/63/89  222-
MRF  52/81/52/82  3221
CNM  59/86/57/91 f 422-

.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

12

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-121000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
300 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2001

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE IS FORECAST
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA PROVIDING A GOOD FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.  THIS FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TONIGHT.

.THREATS...
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT.  DUE TO THE UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND LIGHT STEERING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN...AND THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
TONIGHT.  THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE.  HOWEVER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINS...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATIOEN AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN
YOUR AREA.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MARTIN