Tornadoes and Hail in North Carolina, May 19, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
225 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2001

MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC AT THIS TIME THANKS
TO MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CELL.  LOW LEVEL PARAMETERS HAVE
PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN DEPICTING AXIS OF INSTABILITY
STRETCHING FROM DAN VICINITY INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE
ANOTHER AXIS FROM UPSTATE SC INTO NC MOUNTAINS.

WEAK MID LEVEL VORT CENTER CROSSING EASTERN KY SHOULD INITIATE
CONVECTION ALONG VA BOUNDARY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BETWEEN 21Z AND
23Z. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DRIFT INTO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF
CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. SECOND AREA OF CONCERN DEALS WITH CONVECTION
FIRING OVER NE GA AHEAD OF TN VALLEY VORT CENTER.  EXTRAPOLATION HAS
THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS THREATENING SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AFTER 21Z OR
22Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TREND THOUGH RELEASE
TIME...HOWEVER PLAN TO GO WITH GOOD CHC POPS OVER FAR NORTH THIS
EVENING WITH CHC POPS IN TRIAD/TRIANGLE AREAS. FOR SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT...FAVOR CHC POPS BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE TO GOOD CHC IF
CLUSTER HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH UPSTATE SC.

EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION ON SUN AS DEEP MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
VORT CENTER CROSSING REGION SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
COVERAGE MAY BE LIKELY OVER EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON.

ON MON...DO NOT SEE MUCH SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEST-NW OF REGION. HOWEVER AIR MASS PROJECTED TO
BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT DIURNAL AIR MASS THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A CHC OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
AREA-WIDE.

EXTENDED: UNFORTUNATELY COULD NOT VIEW NOGAPS/CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO
INTERNET SERVICE OUTAGE. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MIDWEST TUE AND INTO THE OH VALLEY BY THU. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE FRONT TUE. MRF TAKES MID
LEVEL FLOW BACK AROUND TO SW WITH THE FRONT HEADING BACK NORTH &
BRINGING A RETURNED CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY OF CLOSED LOW POSITION & OUR INABILITY TO DO A THOROUGH
ANALYSIS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS... WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE AND GO
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/COOL THROUGH SAT AND ADD PRECIP CHANCE LATER IF
NEEDED.

RDU 65/80/65/82 3543                    GSO 65/79/63/80 4534
                    FAY 67/83/67/83 1544
.RAH...NONE.

WSS/GIH

NCZ007>011-021>028-192315-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
135 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2001

ALAMANCE-DURHAM-EDGECOMBE-FORSYTH-FRANKLIN-GRANVILLE-GUILFORD-
HALIFAX-NASH-ORANGE-PERSON-VANCE-WARREN-

...RISK OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS EVENING...

.SKYWARN SPOTTERS...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT THREATENING WEATHER OF
ANY KIND TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
A STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA WILL
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS EVENING.

.HAZARDOUS WEATHER DETAILS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND
GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH.  ALL STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT AND SHARP
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN. THE
STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER 10 PM.

THE SUNNY AND HOT WEATHER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS LURED MANY FOLKS
TO THE AREA LAKES AND PARKS.  PEOPLE NEED TO BE ALERT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE CLOSE TO THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. BOATERS ON HYCO...MAYO AND KERR LAKES SHOULD HEAD TO SHORE
AT THE FIRST SIGNS OF THREATENING WEATHER.

WSS

NCZ007>011-021>028-192315-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...CORRECTION FOR
CODING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
135 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2001

ALAMANCE-DURHAM-EDGECOMBE-FORSYTH-FRANKLIN-GRANVILLE-GUILFORD-
HALIFAX-NASH-ORANGE-PERSON-VANCE-WARREN-

...RISK OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS EVENING...

.SKYWARN SPOTTERS...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT THREATENING WEATHER OF
ANY KIND TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
A STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA WILL
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS EVENING.

.HAZARDOUS WEATHER DETAILS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND
GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH.  ALL STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT AND SHARP
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN. THE
STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER 10 PM.

THE SUNNY AND HOT WEATHER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS LURED MANY FOLKS
TO THE AREA LAKES AND PARKS.  PEOPLE NEED TO BE ALERT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE CLOSE TO THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. BOATERS ON HYCO...MAYO AND KERR LAKES SHOULD HEAD TO SHORE
AT THE FIRST SIGNS OF THREATENING WEATHER.

WSS