Tornado and Flash Flooding in North Carolina, June 1, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO ...TONIGHT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
208 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2001

TODAY...
BULK AIR TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY SHOULD BRING HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER...OVER 1.5 INCHES...AND DEEP LAYER SATURATION AS
DEPICTED UPSTREAM IN MID TO UPPER LEVELS AT FFC AND BMX.  A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO HELP PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT AND SHEAR
FOR A GREATER RAINFALL COVERAGE AND FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURE ELEVATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER DIVERGENCE/LOWER CONVERGENCE
COUPLET LATER TODAY AND 30-40 KNOTS WINDS AT 850 MB FOR A DYNAMIC
COMPONENT TO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.

POPS WILL BE IN THE 70 PERCENT OR HIGHER RANGE WITH ONE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER AROUND DAYBREAK AND MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION STARTING IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTHWEST SPREADING NORTHEAST
MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS.  WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS OF 12K FT OR
HIGHER SHOULD PRECLUDE LARGE HAIL AS A PRIME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
BUT DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST THREAT AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. TRAIN ECHO STORMS MAY ALSO RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL.  CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL LIMIT HEATING BUT A
CONTRAST BETWEEN MID 70S NORTH AND NEAR 85 SOUTH SHOULD ARISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT EARLY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...
MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE AIRMASS DRIES SIGNIFICANTLY ALOFT FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT.  LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING DECREASE TO A CHANCE
OF SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT.  WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING ON
THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN MILD AND MOIST IN
LOWER LEVELS WITH AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG AND LOWS OF 60-65 FAVORED
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LATEST GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE AIRMASS AGAIN DESTABILIZES LATE IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW INTENSIFIES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.   THOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOW
A PREDOMINANT WESTERLY COMPONENT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR THE CHANCE OF A LATE
DAY OR NIGHTTIME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST.  CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES OF 80-85 AND 60-65 LOOKS REASONABLE.

EXTENDED...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ABOUT
WED AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.  OTHERWISE FORECASTS WILL INDICATE DRY
WEATHER WITHa TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR
EARLY JUNE.

.RAH...NONE.

RFG

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-020000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1105 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2001

ALAMANCE-ANSON-CHATHAM-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-DURHAM-EDGECOMBE-FORSYTH-
FRANKLIN-GRANVILLE-GUILFORD-HALIFAX-HARNETT-HOKE-JOHNSTON-LEE-
MONTGOMERY-MOORE-NASH-ORANGE-PERSON-RANDOLPH-RICHMOND-SAMPSON-
SCOTLAND-STANLY-VANCE-WAKE-WARREN-WAYNE-WILSON-

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

.SKYWARN SPOTTERS...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT DAMAGING WEATHER OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE ADDITION OF
AFTERNOON HEATING...PARTICULARLY IN THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

.HAZARDOUS WEATHER DETAILS...
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE INCH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNECD TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

SEB/MLM