Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 1, 2001

TTAA00 KICT DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
214 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2001

NOT TOO MUCH TO ADD TO EARLIER AFD THAT WAS ISSUED AT 1035 AM.  WITH
WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND A
COLD FRONT STILL LAGGING TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA...I EXPECT TRW
TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL HEATING AND THEN PROGRESS ONTO
THE SOUTH WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
RESIDE IN THE SLN AREA WITH CAPES RUNNING AROUND 25 TO 2700.  RIGHT
NOW THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE HAIL AND WINDS...HOWEVER...IF THE
SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL ENSUE.

WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND MAKE SATURDAY A PLEASANT DAY.  ANOTHER
LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO RIDE SOUTH ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES
AND MAY PRODUCE AN MCS WHICH LOOKS TO MOVE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  LATER ON SUNDAY...IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA TO THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER BY 6 PM.  WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF
THE BORDER...I ANTICIPATE A DECENT OVERRUNNING EVENT TO PREVAIL.
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.  THIS SHOULD LAST
INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ROLLS IN.

THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS GOOD WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND.

CHANCE

FCSTID = 1
ICT   55  78  55  75 /  40  10  20  50
HUT   55  77  55  75 /  40  10  20  50
EWK   55  77  55  75 /  40  10  20  50
EQA   55  78  55  75 /  40  10  20  50
WLD   55  79  55  75 /  40  10  20  50
RSL   50  76  54  75 /  30  10  50  50
GBD   50  76  54  75 /  30  10  50  50
SLN   50  76  54  75 /  30  10  50  50
MPR   50  76  54  75 /  30  10  50  50
CFV   53  72  54  75 /  50  30  20  50
CNU   53  71  54  75 /  50  30  20  50
K88   53  70  54  75 /  h50  30  20  50

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-012014-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1114 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2001

A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES IN:

CENTRAL KANSAS...
         RUSSELL            LINCOLN              SALINE
         BARTON             ELLSWORTH            MCPHERSON
         RICE

SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
         RENO                KINGMAN             HARPER
         HARVEY              SEDGWICK            SUMNER
         BUTLER              COWLEY              MARION
         CHASE

SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
         GREENWOOD           ELK                 CHAUTAUQUA
         WILSON              WOODSON             MONTGOMERY
         ALLEN               NEOSHO              LABETTE

THE SYNOPSIS:
AS OF MIDDAY A SURFACE TROUGH OR WIND-SHIFT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MANHATTAN SOUTHWEST THROUGH HUTCHINSON TO NEAR GAGE OKLAHOMA. THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO WARM AND MOISTEN
AND THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH NEBRASKA AND THIS FRONT
WILL REACH INTERSTATE 70 BY SUNDOWN.

THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 3 PM...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND THIS ALONE WITH THE MOISTURE
PRESENT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF A WICHITA TO COTTONWOOD FALLS LINE AFTER 3 PM.

DUE TO THE STRONG CHANGE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION FROM AROUND
5000 FEET UPWARD...ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE WIND DIRECTION
WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY SINCE ANY SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL...THEREFORE ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED AFTER 3 PM ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF
A WICHITA TO COTTONWOOD FALLS LINE...AFTER 6 PM THE COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS SO
SPOTTER ACTIVATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS LIKELY TONIGHT.

CO