Flash Flooding and Hail in Kansas, June 1, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
310 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2001

...MAIN CHALLENGES ARE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY THEN THREAT OF
MORE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NE WITH TEMPS IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BEHIND.  WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NICE VORT MAX
DROPPING STRAIGHT SOUTH INTO SD WITH A 90 KNOT JET MAX ACROSS
WESTERN SD.

SEVERE THREAT LOOKS INTERESTING TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS LACKING A BIT
BUT DYNAMICS ARE STRONG. 850MB-500MB LAPSE RATES PROGGED AT ABOUT
7.25 DEGREES C AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KNOTS. WITH
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH AND DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S AHEAD
FRONT ACROSS CWA...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE A THREAT. WILL STICK
CLOSE TO GOING FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST MO AND SOUTHWEST IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE KC METRO AROUND 01Z.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS AS COOLER AIR IS
REINFORCED BEHIND THE INCOMING COLD FRONT.  THIS WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE SATURDAY.  MAY NEED TO DROP CURRENT
HIGHS A CATEGORY EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS AND
ONLY A FEW CLOUDS WILL KEEP THINGS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT AS FRONT THAT
DROPPED SOUTH OF CWA BEGINS TO WORK BACK TO THE NORTH.

THIS WARM AND MUCH MORE MOIST AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY
BEFORE BEING SWEPT EAST LATE MONDAY AS NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE PUNCHES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
AROUND ON SUNDAY AND WHEN COUPLED WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOL AGAIN. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO
MOVE OUT FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES.

.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

18

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043>046-053-054-021100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
109 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2001

...RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI AND EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS...

FORECAST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AFTER 3 PM
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS...MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
AROUND MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. HOWEVER...THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL RISK OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM KANSAS CITY TO MACON.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT FROM MINNESOTA THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
THIS EVENING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND CORE OF HIGH
WINDS ALOFT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SUPPORT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI AFTER 4 PM WITH SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THE
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST UNSTABLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND THIS WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
KANSAS. THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A
KANSAS CITY TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 7 PM AND 11 PM...AND MOVE INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOpK:  THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PC