Damaging Wind in New York, June 19, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
253 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2001

BLAZING HEAT ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEW RECORDS
ALREADY AT BUF AND ROC (90 AND 94...SEE RER'S). NOT TOO SURPRISING AT
ROC BUT 90 AT BUF IS AMAZING WITH WIND OFF LAKE...BUT VERY STRONG
SPEEDS ARE OVERSHOOTING LAKE AND NOT RESULTING IN MUCH COOLING. BIG
CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH...AND WE WILL NOT SEE ANYTHING LIKE THIS
TOMORROW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SPORADIC AND LATE TODAY SO MOST OF THIS
FCST DEVELOPED THRU PATTERN RECOGNITION AND 06Z MODEL RUNS.

FIRST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WX TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IN
VCNTY OF THUMB OF MICH EASING SE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS HAVE
PRECLUDED DEVELOPMENT SO FAR. HOWEVER...DEW PTS ARE POOLING IN
DETROIT AREA ALONG WITH LI'S OF -9 SO DO EXPECT SOME DEVELOPMENT NEXT
COUPLE HOURS AND THIS WILL ADVECT TOWARD OUR REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. SO THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW RISK ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. BEST LL JET PULLS OFF TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON AND
DYNAMICS WEAKEN...SO SFC FRONT OOZES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WLL GO WITH
40 POPS ALL ZONES TONIGHT.

LOTS OF ENERGY SURGES BACK NE ACROSS THE ERN LAKES ON WED AND WE WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. MOS GUIDANCE OUT TO LUNCH WITH
UPPER 70S AND 50 POPS AT BUF AND ROC SO WILL CERTAINLY ADJUST IFPS
MATRICES. WITH LOW CLOUDS AND NE WIND WILL KEEP BOTH AREAS IN 60S
ALONG WITH NEARLY STEADY RAIN OR SHOWERS...ESP IN AFTERNOON. TSTORM
STILL POSSIBLE. WILL GO WITH 90 POPS EXCEPT 70 E OF LK ONTARIO AND
RESTRICT TO PM THERE. SHOWERS HANG ON MUCH OF WED NT AND THEN BREAK
OFF...BUT NEXT WAVE MOVES UP INTO ERN NY THURS SO WLL KEEP LIKELY
POPS GEN VALLEY AND EAST...CHC POPS NIAG FRONTIER. WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE NE FLOW AND CLOUD.

EXTENDED...SLOW IMPROVEMENT ON FRI FROM WEST TO EAST...THEN SEVERAL
VERY PLEASANT DAYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HYDROWISE...WRN NY IS VERY DRY AND CAN USE RAIN. THERE IS POTENTIAL
OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH NEXT 36 HOURS WHICH WILL BE HELPFUL.

CLIMO...ROC'S 94 AS OF CURRENT WRITING IS WARMEST TEMP THERE SINCE
7/21/94. BUF'S 90 IS THIRD OF THE MONTH...WHICH MATCHES THE EPNTIRE
ANNUAL AVERAGE...AND ITS NOT EVEN SUMMER YET!

THATS ABOUT IT FROM THE HOT BUF THIS AFTERNOON. WRKZONES AVAIL
SHORTLY. FINALS OUT BY 345.
TAKE IT EASY.

.BUF...NONE.

MCLAUGHLIN