Hail in New Mexico, August 1, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1049 AM MDT WED AUG 1 2001

UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF ELP HEADING NW/NNW-WRD AND SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS W NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH MODELS
SLOW THE SYSTEM UP SLIGHTLY. BELIEVE IT MAY TRACK JUST A BIT TO WEST
OF AVERAGE OF MODELS COURSE. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SECOND
CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE GILA WHICH IS MORE THAN LIKELY SOMEWHAT
BELOW THE LEVEL OF THE CENTER EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST. INDICATIONS ARE THAT LEFT FRONT REGION OF H300/H250 JET
STREAK SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/NORTHWEST PLATEAU
THIS AFTERNOON...AND HISTORY WITH THIS SYSTEM VIA LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND SAT DATA IS THAT THERE HAS BEEM MORE ACTION SW THROUGH N OF
CENTER THAN ELSEHWERE AROUND IT. ALSO SO FAR SEEING HIGHEST LI/S AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS NRN MOUNTAINS AND GILA AREA...THOUGH NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE. BUT MUST ALSO CONSIDER THE IMPACT OF CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL-IN-ALL DON/T EXPECT TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST...BUT WILL LIKELY RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY FEW SPOTS ALONG
AND W OF CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. OVERALL EXPECT MORE ACTIVITY FROM
NRN MOUNTAINS SW-WRD TO THE GILA REGION. MUCH OF EASTERN PLAINS TO BE
LEAST LIKELY AREA...THOUGH IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF RIGHT
REAR REGION GENERATES MUST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BRIEFLY THOUGHT
ABOUT FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOME PART OF W OR NW MOUNTAINS...BUTT GOOD
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF GOOD SURFACE FOCUS STAYING IN PLACE
THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING LEADS TO A NO-GO ON THAT. WILL ADD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MENTIONS TO A FEW MORE SPOTS N AND W. 43

.ABQ...NONE.