Flood in New Jersey, July 4, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
150 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2001

DISC: UPPER LVL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS BEARABLE FOR NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT OCNLY BRING S/W S MOVING OVER THE REGION.
FIRST ARRIVES ON THE SCENE THIS EVENING. EARLIER SHOWERS/TSTMS
OFFSHORE XCPT SOME LINGERING HVY SHWRS OVER OCEAN/BURLINGTON
COS NJ AND W/B MOVING OFFSHORE SHRTLY. CLDS THINNING OUT OVER
CHESAPEAKE REGION INTO CENTRAL PA. CLD MOTION/UPPER LVL WINDS BRING
SOME SUN TO PHL AREA AROUND 200 PM.

QUESTION OF HOW UNSTABLE ATMOS BECOMES IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING
LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND UPPER LVL S/W. REGARDLESS OF INTENSITY...
SHOWERS WITH PSBLY TSHWRS W/B DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND MAKING WAY TO ERN AREAS DURING THE PRIME PYROTECHNIC
WINDOW SO W/B ISSUING STATEMENTS IF NECESSARY WITH A TIMING LINE
IF SVR TSTMS/HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS.

A CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
K VALUES CLOSE TO 40 WITH PWS IN EXCESS OF 2 SOME AREAS. GIVEN
STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE THINK THAT A 4 RAIN IN ISOLATED AREAS
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL INCLUDE THAT LIKELYHOOD
IN FOLLOWUP STATEMENT WHEN ZONES ARE READY.

THU BEGINS SUNNY WITH SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
SRN END OF CFA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY PUTTING 30/40 POP AT
BEST.

ENJOY THE 4TH...

.PHI...NONE.

SEE YA

EBERWINE

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>026-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-050415-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2001

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...

AT 410 PM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN A LINE FROM
THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY TO NORTHERN VIRGINIA. A SMALL CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG THE BURLINGTON/OCEAN COUNTY BORDER
IN NEW JERSEY.

THE STORMS IN NEW JERSEY WERE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT ONLY 20
MPH SO THESE WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NEXT HOUR.

UNLESS OTHER STORMS DEVELOP...THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF BERKS COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA AROUND 5
PM...CECIL COUNTY MARYLAND BETWEEN 5 AND 530...AND THE PHILADELPHIA
AREA BETWEEN 530 AND 6 PM.

NOT ALL AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY RAIN
BUT PINPOINTING WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE IS STILL UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME SO WE ASK THAT YOU STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN
THE EVENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES...OR WARNINGS BECOME NECESSARY
AND FOR STATEMENTS PINPOINTING THE AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION,u CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/PHI IN SMALL LETTERS.

EBERWINE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2001

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0825 PM    TRAPPE                    MD   .88 INCH HAIL
07/04/01   TALBOT

JAQ