Flash Flood and Hail in Kentucky, July 4, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
410 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2001

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS THIS MORNING ARE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND IF THEY WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. ALSO
CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT AS IT DROPS THROUGH AREA
THURSDAY MORNING.

MODELS GENERALLY SIMILAR BUT WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD ETA...PER MODEL
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG SEVERAL BOUNDARIES TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA. STORMS TO THE WEST HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE
EAST AFTER HOLDING NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS.  ANOTHER
AREA OF STORMS OVER ILLINOIS ALSO HAS POSSIBILITY OF REACHING
FA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS...DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG TWO BOUNDARIES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA COULD
IMPACT NORTHEAST PARTS OF FA.

ETA SHOWS AREA OF INSTABILITY HEADED TOWARD FA ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS WITH VERTICAL VELOCITY INCREASING AS FRONT
APPROACHES OHIO RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER
NORTHEAST PART OF FA AHEAD OF FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. AVN HINTS AT
SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT HAS AREA DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL HAVE TO KEEP POPS QUITE HIGH TODAY WITH
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. WITH VERTICAL VELOCITY AND
INSTABILITY CONTINUING...WILL HAVE TO MENTION CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THURSDAY MORNING OVER NORTHEAST PART OF FA.

WILL GO A LITTLE ABOVE AVN POPS TONIGHT BUT WILL TRIM SOME OVER
SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY. ON THURSDAY WILL ADD SMALL CHANCE SHOWERS
PER ABOVE DISCUSSION.

AVN TEMPS MORE REASONABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT WITH COOLER AIR
ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT...WILL USE BLEND OF AVN AND NGM MOS FOR
THURSDAY.

.SDF...NONE.

SCHOLZ

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>026-028>038-045-041600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
542 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2001

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND MOST OF
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HARTFORD IN
OHIO COUNTY TO ELIZABETHTOWN IN HARDIN COUNTY TO CYNTHIANA IN
HARRISON COUNTY KENTUCKY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING INCREASING THE INSTABILITY...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FROM
THE NATIONAL WEAT|HER SERVICE OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION
ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION. SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON.

SCHOLZ