Flash Flood in New Jersey, August 19, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2001

LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA ALONG
AN OLD BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.  THIS FRONT WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES
WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE COAST LATE MON. THIS FRONT IS
NOW PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN PA AND SVR TSTM WATCHES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MOVE INTO EASTERN PA DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WELL AFTER SUNSET SO BIG
QUESTION IS HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE ONCE IT GETS HERE. WILL GO
WITH 50 CHANCE POPS IN POCONOS/LEHIGH VALLEY/NORTHERN NJ AND 60
LIKELY POS SOUTHERN PART OF CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MON
STARTS OUT CLOUDY WITH MORNING SHOWERS BUT SKIES SHOULD BREAK UP AT
LEAST PARTIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS FRONT PASSES BY AND
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SOME CLOUDINESS RETURN
MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH...WITH WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FROM EXITING LOW BUT CHANCES FOR MEASUREABLE PCPN APPEAR
LOW.

FWC GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK OK.

FCSTID = 24
MPO   62  78  60  75 /  50  40  20  20
ABE   65  83  64  81 /  50  40  20  20
RDG   65  83  64  81 /  50  40  20  20
PHL   71  88  68  84 /  60  40  20  20
12N   62  78  60  75 /  50  40  20  20
SMQ   65  83  64  82 /  50  40  20  20
TTN   65  83  64  82 /  50  40  20  20
MIV   60  86  61  83 /  60  40  20  20
ACY   65  79  62  80 /  50  40  20  20
ILG   67  85  66  83 /  60  40  20  20
DOV   70  86  67  83 /  60  40  20  20
GED   70  86  67  83 /  60  40  20  20
ESN   70  86  67  83 /  60  40  20  20

.PHI...
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

JJM