High Wind in Nevada, March 11, 2001

MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
355 PM PST SUN MAR 11 2001

SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA
THIS EVENING AND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THE NORTH WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION MONDAY ENDING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE...
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER ON TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...12Z MODELS WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING S-SW TOWARD SOUTHERN NV. SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE S-SW INTO SOUTHERN NV THIS EVENING AND END UP VICINITY LAX
12-15Z MONDAY. 18Z ETA ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN 12Z MODELS AND
FOLLOWED IT CLOSELY FOR TONIGHT FORECAST. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED
UP ACROSS NORTHERN CLARK/SOUTHERN LINCOLN AND BEST FORCING/OMEGA
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS OVER SOUTHERN LINCOLN...CLARK AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FORCING THEN WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
S-SW INTO SOUTHERN MOHAVE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES OVERNIGHT WITH
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW.

BASED ON 18Z ETA AND CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE BEEFED UP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT WITH LIKELY WORDING FOR SPRING
MOUNTAINS AND MOHAVE COUNTY. KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS THERE IS ONLY A QUICK SHOT OF FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP. SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT TO SWING THROUGH CLARK AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF AND CONTINUES SW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST
DURING MONDAY WITH ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY DRYING OUT AND STABILIZING
UNDER N-NE FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NV LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE NOSES IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
(AND UPPER LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH). DRY...WARMER WEATHER FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR A TASTE OF SPRING.

DRY...SEASONAL WEATHER CONTINUES WED AS PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE
COAST AND NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPS SE TOWARD FOUR CORNERS REGION. SHORT
WAVE WILL LIKELY KICK UP THE NORTHERLY WINDS AGAIN LATE WED INTO THU
BUT NOT MUCH ELSE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. EXTENDED MODELS
STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS NEXT TROUGH INTO THE
WEST FRIDAY. DETAILS STILL UP FOR GRABS BUT ADDED THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY TO AZ ZONES WHERE IT WAS NOT PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED.

NEMETH

.LAS...NONE.