Wildfire in Nevada, July 3, 2001

WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
240 PM PDT TUE JUL 3 2001

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER EASTERN GREAT BASIN IS ADVECTING
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA...MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS HAVE KEPT IN
THE 40S AND LOWER 50S TO THE SOUTH OF RENO. CONVECTION IS MOVING UP
THE SIERRA...STORMS ARE MOVING AND NOT VERY STATIONARY SO THREAT OF
MAJOR FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. LATEST REPORTS HAVE BEEN OF
MODERATE RAIN...AND LOTS OF LIGHTNING.  LAST HOUR LIGHTNING SEEMS TO
HAVE DECREASED SOME AS THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
STILL EXPECTING EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA TO BECOME UNSTABLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS STRONG
OVER FALLON AND LOVELOCK.  THE FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE RENO
AREA APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED A FIRE TO THE NW OF THE OFFICE...BUT NO
CONFIRMATION YET.

CONVECTION A RESULT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES...MOISTURE...AND A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE.  THE RUC
EARLIER SHOWED A DOUBLE MAXIMUM...WHICH IS ALIGHNED WITH THE CURRENT
CONVECTION.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THIS SEEMS TO BE THE
PATTERN PRESENTED BY THE MODELS SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH DAY.  LITTLE OR NO WINDS ARE EXPECTED...SO THE TREAT
OF FLASH FLOODS STILL EXIST. PUT OUT A STATEMENT EARLIER ON THE
POSSIBILITY...BUT STEERING WINDS ARE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS
MOVING.  MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...AND IN FACT THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND.  BIGGEST COORDINATION PROBLEM WAS TO DECIDE WHICH PORTIONS
OF THE CWA WOULD QUIET DOWN AND GO DRY BETWEEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE BROADBRUSHED MOST ZONES WITH CONVECTION BASED ON
AVN/MRF AND CANADIAN MODELS.

TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...A TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NW COAST BRINGING
A BIT DRIER AIR AND STRONGER SW FLOW. THIS...BY SUNDAY...SHOULD
BEGIN TO DRY US OUT AND HENCE HAVE CONE WITH DRY FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON
MONDAY...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS...AND THE FACT
THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT AFFECT THAT AREA AS MUCH.  CAIRNS

.REV...NONE.

NVZ001>004-CAZ072>073-032300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1150 AM PDT TUE JUL 3 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS
BRINGING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO
WESTERN NEVADA AND THE SIERRA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

MOTORIST SHOULD BE ALERT TO FALLING ROCK AND MUD SLIDES IN CANYONS
AND OTHER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. BOATERS ON AREA LAKES SHOULD ALSO
BE AWARE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. SEEK SAFE HARBOR IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

THIS THUNDERSTORM PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL
SATURDAY BEFORE A DRIER AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

TRC