Damaging Wind in Nebraska, May 5, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
315PMM CDT SAT MAY 5 2001

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW HAS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT
BACK TOWARD IN THE UPPER CIRCULATION.  PRESSURE FALLS APPEARING IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTH AND WEST INDICATE UPER WAVE MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  18Z SOUNDINGS CONFIRM DRYING ALOFT AS WELL AS
SUBSIDENCE.  SURFACE MOISTURE AXIS HAS BEEN FORCED EAST TO SOME
EXTENT IN CENTRAL KANSAS BUT IS BEING PULLED BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND
THE SURFACE LOW.  FBY AND NLG PROFILERS SHOW STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WARM FRONT WHICH HAS WRAPPED ALL THE WAY TO
THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.

.MODELS ARE A BIT SPREAD BUT ALL INDICATE THAT LIFT AND SATURATION
SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE BEST THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO CENTER AROUND LATE TONIGHT IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND MONDAY MORNING IN EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES AND WHILE THE LOWERED PWS WOULD LESSEN
THE CHANCE...A GREAT DEAL OF THE GROUND IS SATURATED AND THE UPPER
FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WOULD FAVOR SOME REPETITION UNTIL
THE TROUGH PASSES.  THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF PRECIP AGAIN AS THE
TROUGH SWINGS PAST.

.OMA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TNGT E CNTRL...SERN NEBR AND SWRN IA
INCLUDING THESE COUNTIES AND LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH...
BUTLER...DODGE...WASHINGTON...HARRISON AND SHELBY.

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