Tornado in Nebraska, July 9, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
410 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2001

...FCST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH FIRST
60 HRS...

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW H5 CUTOFF HIGH OVER SW
KS NEAR DDC. RING OF FIRE CONTINUES WITH AN ACTIVE WATER VAPOR
PICTURE. SHORTWAVES PRESENT OVER NRN UT...S CENT CO AND NW NEBR.
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS IS INDICATING A CONTINUATION OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER NRN KS. TSRAS CONTINUE ACROSS NW CWA...WITH
HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

MODELS SEEM TO DIVERGE QUITE A BIT WITH H5 FEATURES AFTER 24
HRS...WITH THE ETA MODEL DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW OVER IDAHO/WARN MAT
BY 48 HRS. THE AVON TREATS THIS FEATURE AS AN OPEN WAVE.  OVER THE
CENTRAL ONUS THROUGH 60 HRS...RING OF FIRE WILL PERSIST...AND BOTH
THE AVON AND ETA AGREE ON THIS.
IN THE SMALLER SCALE...AT 06Z...THE 00Z ETA SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE
ON THE CONVECTION OVER SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES WITH GOOD H7
FORT MAX LOCATED HERE. BOTH AVON AND ETA SHOW GOOD H7 2D
FRONTOGENESIS OVER NRN COLORADO.  THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. WILL FAVOR ETA FOR FIRST
PERIOD...WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD BE IN ABUNDANCE FOR MOST THE DAY
OVER THE NORTH FROM DECAYING MCS. ETA H85 TEMPS SEEM TO RESEMBLE
THIS SOMEWHAT WITH COOLER H85 TEMPS OVER NRN CWA.  GUIDANCE IS
SHOOTING FOR 88 TO 90. WILL GO WITH RUNNING FCST FOR TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80. DOWN SOUTH IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...H85 TEMPS
ARE INDICATIVE OF 90 TO 95. WILL GO WITH ONGOING WORDING OVER NRN
COUNTIES. DO NOT THINK AT THIS TIME THAT SRN PORTIONS WILL BE
DEALING WITH PRECIP. SO WILL KEEP OUT...BUT MAY NEED TO TOWARD
ISSUANCE.
TONIGHT...FIREWORKS RESERVED FOR THIS PERIOD. AVN MODEL DEVELOPS A
BOMB OVER CWA LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE ETA BEING MORE CONSERVATIVE AND
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE QPF. DISREGARDING QPF WITH EITHER
MODEL...BOTH AGREE ON PCPN TONIGHT AND BOTH HAVE THE BULK OF IT
LATE. LOCATION OF H85 JET WILL BE KEY...AT THIS JUNCTURE...AM
FAVORING PRECIP NEAR THE NOSE OF THE H85 JET. THINK THE BEST CHANCES
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL HAVE TO GO WITH POPS OVER ERN
PORTIONS OF CWA FOR RESIDUAL SHOWERS. ATM WILL RELOAD FOR MORE TSRAS
OVERNIGHT AGAIN. BASED ON LLJ FCST...NRN CWA WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES ON TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL GO WITH
HIGHEST POPS THERE.  H7 TEMPS WILL BE THE COOLEST THEY HAVE BEEN FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...SO CAP HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY. THROUGH FIRST FOUR
PERIODS...UPPER AIR REGIME REMAINS THE SAME WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH
REMANING ENTRENCHED.

EXTENDED...CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AND WILL KEEP INTACT. DO NOT
FEEL STRONGLY AT THIS JUNCTURE ABOUT INTRODUCING PCPN INTO FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY PERIODS. RIDGE APPEARS TO AMPLIFY SOME...LATER IN @THE
WEEK AS HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH...DRAGGING SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OUT
OF NRN KS.

.LBF...NONE.

CLB

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-091630-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
602 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2001

...STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS WEST OF A LINE FROM BURWELL
TO MERRIMAN. THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AS WELL.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL COME LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

A STATIONARY FRONT...LOCATED SOUTH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WILL LIFT
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL. THIS...ALONG WITH
SOME SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON...WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
DURING THE DAY...ALLOWING DISTURBANCES TO ROTATE AROUND IT. ONE SUCH
DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE STILL
ANOTHER WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN MOST PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM BROKEN BOW TO OGALLALA.

ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE LIKELY THREAT. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL ALSO BE QUITE MOIST...AND WITH A SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS...
HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE A THREAT BY LATE TONIGHT.

JWS