Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, July 31, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
237 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE AREAL COVERAGE FOR POPS TONIGHT...

LEADING SURFACE TROUGH AT 18Z EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM LOW CENTER OVER
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WEST OF MBG...TO EAST OF VTN...THEN
SOUTHWEST TO OGA. REINFORCING TROUGH TO ENTER FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING WITH DRIER AIR TO FILTER ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S CENTRAL WITH CAP WEAKEST OVER
THE PANHANDLE AT 18Z WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE INTO THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE BY 4 PM AS GRAVITY WAVES ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
MOVE NORTHEAST. DEWPOINTS ALREADY DROPPING INTO THE LOW 50S IN THE
PANHANDLE WITH HIGH BASED CONVECTION MOST LIKELY WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH BOUNDARY TO
CRAWL SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. H85 SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTATED JET TO KEEP BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WELL TO THE NORTH
MOVING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA THROUGH
01/00Z ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THEN AS REINFORCEMENT OF DRIER
AIR OCCURS ALONG BOUNDARY THE FRONT WILL ORGANIZE WITH INCREASED LIFT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF LINE FROM
ANW TO LBF AND IML. FURTHER WEST MORE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION.
HIGHER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE EAST OF AREA WITH LOW POPS
RETAINED. AFTER 01/00Z SERIES OF H5 WAVES WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WITH THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE
EAST OF FORECAST AREA AFT 06Z. SURFACE WINDS TURN ON TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 09Z WITH FRONT TO
HANG FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY.

CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AS FRONT
MOVES BRIEFLY SOUTHEAST. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REMAINDER AS NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WRAP MOISTURE BACK
SOUTHWEST AND SERIES OF H5 WAVES TRANSIT EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST WINDS FLOW WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCES USED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AS FRONT REMAINS DRAPED NEAR THE STATELINE AND
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH EAST WINDS TO GENERATE UPSLOPE FLOW AND CLOUDS INCREASES
THEN CONVECTION DRIVES FRONT FURTHER SOUTH INTO KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST
ACROSS MINNESOTA AND NEXT LEESIDE TROUGH FORMS ON THE NORTHWEST HIGH
PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP THURSDAY WITH FRONT TO RETURN NORTH. THE H5
HIGH CENTER WILL BE SITUATED OVER KANSAS WITH SERIES OF WAVES TO
ROTATE AROUND PHERIPERY WITH LOW POPS INCLUDED FOR THE DAY
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER WEST AND
AMPLIFIES.

IN THE EXTENDED EUROPEAN MODEL MORE AGGRESSIVE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WHILE MRF SHOWS DEEPER TROUGH TO
DIG IN AND SLOWER PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST
BEYOND 96 HOURS. EUROPEAN MODEL PREFERRED AS 31/12Z AVN THROUGH
120 HOURS LIMITS MOISTURE ADVECTION AS THE H5 HIGH CENTER TO
BUILD WEST ACROSS KANSAS ON FRIDAY...THEN EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DRIER FORECAST
AS RETURN FLOW SHUTS OFF FROM THE GULF AND MAIN FORCING MOVES MORE TO
THE NORTH AND LIMITS RAINFALL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY FIRE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST BUT THEN WEAKEN
WHILE MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AND WILL GO FOR DRY FORECAST. ANY
STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE WEAK STEERING WINDS WITH SLOW
MOVEMENT TO ALSO LIMIT EASTWARD EXTENT. THEN LEESIDE TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SOUTH INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY THEN AS H5 RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.LBF...NONE.

KECK