Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, July 22, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
251 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2001

...AREAL EXTENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE
CHALLENGES...

NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA HAS KEPT ABOUT 7 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAN THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS WHERE SOME TEMPS ARE AROUND 100. SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY SHOW MANY BOUNDARIES OVER THE CWA.  ONE BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM ATKINSON...TO BREWSTER...TO THE DISMAL RIVER...AND TO ARTHUR.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND NEAR THE SD/NE BORDER.

A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS WILL IGNITE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD HALF OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING.  AFTER DEVELOPING...THE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
WITH THE MID LEVEL WINDS AND WILL FINALLY EXIT THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING.  AN MCS DEVELOPING IN SD
TONIGHT MAY BACKBUILD INTO BETTER CAPE OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA LATE TONIGHT TO BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM ONCE AGAIN SO WILL STAY NEAR
GUIDANCE/PERSISTENCE.

CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE EAST QUICKLY ON MONDAY PROVIDING PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ONCE AGAIN FOR MAXIMUM HEATING.  ALTHOUGH H8 TEMPS STILL
REACH NEAR 30C IN THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY...SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS MAKE IT A LITTLE MORE
DIFFICULT TO WARM UP.  HOWEVER...STILL THINK TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
90S.  WITH EASTERLY WINDS PUMPING GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CAPE
VALUES EXCEED 3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HAVE NO
DIFFICULTY SPARKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER THE WEST INITIALLY AND THEN SLIDE SLOWLY EAST.  A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA FROM 02Z TO 10Z.  STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS WITH WAA WILL IS KEEP THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST
AS THE MCS MOVES OUT OF SD AND SLIDES OVER THE REGION LATE MON
NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
CWA LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING.

DOUBT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE PLUNGING SOUTHWARD WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE ONLY FLATTENING SLIGHTLY.  THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO
DROP AS SHARPLY AS THE FAN GUIDANCE INDICATES...WILL STAY CLOSER TO
THE NGM NUMBERS.  THE FRONT WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP ALONG THE NE/KS
BORDER AND SLOWLY WASH OUT.  THEREFORE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING
FOR LOW POPS AGAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST TUE NIGHT AS MORE SHORTWAVES
ROTATE OUT OF COLORADO.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FLAT UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND
WHEN A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGS OUT OF CANADA AND DEVELOPS A TROF
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  UNTIL THEN...NEARLY STATUS QUO WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.

.LBF...NONE.

DDB

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-222045-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1114 AM CDT SUN JUL 22 2001

...STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES REMAIN ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM LEFT
OVER THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT. THE BOUNDARIES COUPLED WITH A PRE
FRONTAL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BOUNDARIES WILL SET
UP ALONG SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AND WILL
BE LOCATED ALONG A OGALLALA TO CURTIS LINE...AND A GORDON TO
AINSWORTH LINE.

WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP COULD REACH SEVERE
LIMITS QUICKLY. WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARISE FROM DOWNBURST WINDS. SOME LARGE HAIL
IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS ALSO.

OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROF...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROF. THIS AREA WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF A BASSETT
TO BROKEN BOW LINE. HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

CLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE, NE
245 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1030 PM    4 NW BROWNLEE             NE   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/01   CHERRY                         5 INCH DIAMETER TREE
                                          BRANCHES TAKEN DOWN BY 50
                                          TO 60 MPH WIN)D
                                          GUSTSREPORTED BY SPOTTERS

MP