Hail in Nebraska, July 12, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
205 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2001

...CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE TEMPS AND PLACEMENT OF POPS...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH UTAH...
AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH SEEMINGLY FLATTENING SOME AND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY
SOUTH. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER WESTERN NEB
EXTENDING THROUGH SD UP TO LOW IN MONTANA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THIS
CONVERGENCE AREA ALSO...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT EXTENDS INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA.

ETA IS TRYING TO DEVELOP A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/-TSRA OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TNT WHERE THE BACK EDGE OF SOME H7 FRONTOGENESIS
EXISTS...THE BULK OF WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN KS. AVN HINTING
AT POSSIBLE WEAK SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST NEB ALSO TNT...SO WILL KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THERE. THINK IT MAY BE OK TO LOWER OR REMOVE POPS FROM
NORTHERN ZONES. POSSIBLE WE WILL HAVE MORE FOG TONIGHT...AS 850 WINDS
REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...SO WEAK UPSLOPE
OCCURS.  ALSO IF SHOWERS DO OCCUR IN VCNTY...FOG BECOMES MORE
LIKELY. ETA TAKES FOG/STRATUS UP INTO SD BY 12Z FRI...BUT QUICKLY
BURNS IT OFF AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH. SMALL VORT MAX ENTERING
NORTH CENTRAL NEB BY 06Z FRIDAY. ETA DOES NOT REFLECT THIS FEATURE
AT ALL.

FRIDAY/NIGHT...THOUGH FOG MAY MIX OUT SOME...LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE
CLOUDS AROUND TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN. WILL NEED TO KNOCK CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPS DOWN A CAT.  FRIDAY LOOKS DRY PER THE ETA...WEST WEST AND
NORTH BY AFTERNOON PER AVN AS IT BRINGS A HUGE VORT MAX TO WY/CO
BORDER. ETA HAS THIS VORT MAX ALSO BUT DOES NO SPREAD QPF AS FAR
EAST AS THE AVN. THINK AVN IS PROBABLY OVERDONE. WILL LEAVE LOW
POPS IN WEST ZONES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN SURFACE
TROUGH FEATURE BY ABOUT 24 HOURS...SO NOT LOOKING FOR THE WARM UP
FRIDAY ANYMORE. FRIDAY NIGHT...MAIN ACTION REMAINS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE. MAY NEED TO TAKE OUT POPS ALTOGETHER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SAT 12Z AVN AND ETA AGREE ON WHERE ENERGY WILL BE...BUT DO NOT
AGREE VERY WELL ON WHERE PCPN WILL BE.  AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOME BY 00Z SUNDAY...THINK THAT LOW POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CWA. LINGERING SHOWERS AGAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SUNDAY AS USUAL. REST OF CWA SHOULD
STAY DRY.

EXTENDED SUN-THU...MRF HAS CHANGED ITS TUNE AGAIN.  NO
MORE CUT OFF LOW ON THE WEST COAST...BUT INSTEAD A MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH AN OPEN TROUGH (ALBEIT STRONG) FLATTENING
OUT THE RIDGE AND TILTING IT POSITIVELY.  NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SOLUTION ALTHOUGH IT RESEMBLES YESTERDAY/S VERSION OF THE
UKMET.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY IS ONLY CONSISTENT
FEATURE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WARRANT CHANCES. SFC TROF WASHES OUT
SUNDAY AND REDEVELOPS TO THE WEST AGAIN MONDAY. IF MRF VERIFIES...
TROUGH WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING EAST ACROSS CWA...AND PRETTY MUCH
MEANS CHANCES EACH DAY FOR PRECIP.  AVN COMING IN LINE WnITH THIS
SOLUTION ALSO...BUT IS KEEPING US DRY FOR THE MOST PART. WILL PUT IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR WED-THU...LEAVE MON-TUE DRY FOR NOW.

.LBF...NONE.

SLM

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-122045-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1134 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2001

...STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT...

SPOTTERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...HOWEVER THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BECAUSE
OF A STABLE LAYER OF AIR ABOVE THIS MOISTURE...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...ONLY SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING EAST OF A LINE FROM
BROKEN BOW TO AINSWORTH.

FURTHER WEST...SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL...AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY MID
AFTERNOON. NEAR THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN AREAS
OF SUNSHINE AND THOSE AREAS WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN...WHICH MAY PROMOTE
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY WEST OF A LINE FROM
VALENTINE TO HAYES CENTER. HOWEVER...DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE AREA...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

JWS