Wildfire in California, July 12, 2001

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT THU JUL 12 2001

                          ...SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE TYPICAL NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON...AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL
RESULTING IN MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND COOLER DAYS ALL
AREAS...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WARMING TREND BY MID WEEK.  NO MONSOON
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

                         ...DISCUSSION...
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAD A WHALE OF A TIME TRYING TO MOVE IN LAST
NIGHT...AND ONLY MOVED INLAND ABOUT 20 TO 30 MILES.  THIS IS DUE TO WEAK
HIGH PRESURE BUILDING INLAND AT THE SURFACE AND A REDUCTION IN THE
ONSHORE FLOW.  THIS SHOULD SHOW UP AS AN INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS AS THE SUBSIDENCE AND HEATING KICKS IN. ALTHOUGH
THE WARMUP MAY ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

THERE MAY BE A PATCH OR TWO OF LOW CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES TILL ABOUT
NOON...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY WILL BE THE RULE DURING MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SCENARIO IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE.  SO LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY TO BE
NEARLY IDENTICAL.

SATURDAY GETS TRICKY...AND TIMING WILL BE IMPORTANT. AVN/ETA/NGM ALL
LOOK TO BLOW A HOLE IN NEVADA AT THE LOW LEVELS AT THE SURFACE...WITH
THE ETA BEING THE MOST BULLISH...GOING FOR A 1002 LOW OVER LAS VEGAS.
THE MORE DOCILE AVN IS GOING FOR ABOUT 1005 OVER NRN NEVADA.  BOTH WOULD
GENERATE GOOD ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LOW CLOUDS INTO THE INTERMEDIATE
VALLEYS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE MOST PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN SLOW WARMING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ALOFT...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ALSO DROP...AND THIS SHOULD BE
REFLECTED IN THE MOUNTAIN AND DESERT TEMPERATURES AND KEEP THEM BELOW
NORMAL.  ALSO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KICK UP IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS.  WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND
40 MPH AT SOME OF THE BETTER EXPOSED MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND IN THE DESERT
AREAS BELOW CANYONS AND PASSES BY SUNDAY...BUT I WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY
WIND ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED.

ON THE SUBJECT OF MONSOON...I AM THINKING MORE LIKE NON<SOON...AS THERE
SHOULD NOT BE ANY MOISTURE AROUND TIL AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

FINALLY...THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS LOOKING GOOD AT THIS
TIME...AND NO UPDATE PLANNED.

.SAN...NONE.

SMALL