Damaging Wind in Missouri, June 14, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FM
HIGH PLAINS SOUTH THRU EXTREME ERN NE/KS INTO CNTL OK/TX. MSAS
HOURLY DATA REVEALS SHARP DEW POINT AND TEMP DROP BEHIND SAID
BOUNDARY...WITH MSAS HOURLY DATA COMPUTING LIS IN PRE FRONTAL AIR
MASS EARLY THIS PM WELL INTO NEGATIVE RANGE. IR IMAGERY/LTG OVERLAY
SHOWS COOLING TOPS/INCREASING LTG RIGHT ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...BUT THIS CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO MAKE GREAT
EWARD ADVANCE THIS PM AS 700MB ANALYSIS REVEALS 10C PLUS CAPPING
ENVIRONMENT THERE...AND DRIVING MECHANISM (LOW TO WEST) WONT LIFT MUCH
TIL TONIGHT. OTHER DIURNALLY DRIVEN MORE PULSE ORIENTED CONVECTION
IN WEAKER SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IS SEEN POPPING IN W TN AND IS SO FAR
STAYING JUST OUTSIDE OF PAH FA.

PRIMARY FCST CHALLENGE IS FRONTAL ASSOCIATED POPS AND POST FRONTAL
TEMPS GIVEN THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DIVERGENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS
IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HOWEVER THE LATEST 12Z SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
SYNCHRONIZING...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE EARLIER FASTER RUNS OF THE
AVN VERSUS THE SLOWER ETA...WITH THE AVN/ETA NOW IN OVERALL GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THIS IS NOTED BY PMDHMD THAT IN FACT THE ETA IS TRENDING
MORE TOWARD THE AVN AND SO WELL LIKELY CONTINUE THE COMPROMISE
APPROACH WITH PERHAPS BEGINNING A LEAN TOWARD THE AVN...WHICH
APPEARS TO PICK UP ON THE EXTRA TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SE THE BEST
AS WELL. THAT BEING SAID WE PREFER KEEPING MAINLY CHC CATEGORY POPS
AS ALL MODELS AGREE THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS WILL LIFT WELL TO THE
NORTH AND STRETCH OUT THE FRONT...WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING
INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. THIS MEANS A LKLY FWC-FAN/MAV COMPROMISE ON ACTUAL POP
NOS...WITH FEELING HERE THAT LEAN TOWARD LOWER FWC TONIGHT MAY BE
BEST AS ALL MODELS HINT AT TWO MAIN MRH FIELDS BREAKING NORTH AND
SOUTH OF PAH FA...A CLIMATOLOGICALLY COMMON OCCURRENCE. BUT AM
LIKEWISE LOOKING AT LINGERING DECENT POP INTO FRI (AGAIN TRENDING
TOWARD FWC)...AS STILL HIGH MRH THRU COLUMN AND VERY GOOD LIKELIHOOD
OF STILL IN VCNTY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IF NOT OUTFLOWS WL TAP SAID
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ERN PTNS FA.

WITH AFOREMENTIONED PURCHASE/LEAN ON AVN AND FWC SOLUTIONS...WL GO FOR
COOLER FAN/MAV GUIDANCE WRN PTNS FA FRI...TRENDING MORE TOWARD MID
GROUND-FWC SIDE SE PTNS. WL THEN GO COMPROMISE-LEAN TOWARD COOLER
FAN/MAV FOR SATURDAY HIGHS AS FRONT SHOULD BE THRU BY THEN. LOWS
LOOK SIMILAR REGARDLESS OF MODEL CHOICE.

AFTER THIS FRONT GETS THRU...DONT SEE MUCH IN WAY OF PCPN CHCS
THRU EXTENDED AS SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN TAKES HOLD OVER SRN 2/3 U.S.
SOME CONCERN REGARDING EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD NOW APPEARS STYMIED AS LATEST MRF HOLDS OFF ON ITS NWARD
MIGRATION ANOTHER DAY...AND STILL KEEPS MAIN MOISTURE POOL TO THE
SOUTH. WL THEREFORE NOT ADD POP YET BUT IT DOES GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SUBSEQUENT RUNS.

.PAH...NONE.
HUMPHREY