Flash Flood in Missouri, July 26, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
228 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2001

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH CONVECTION AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MCS IS ONGOING ACROSS E KS AND INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
CONVECTION FIRED UP THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET STARTED SETTING
UP.  SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MO AND ACROSS S KS.
NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ON N SIDE OF FRONT...BUT MORE
OF A WIND SHIFT LINE.  CURRENT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS GOOD PORTION OF CWA...ESPECIALLY SW
3/4.  MAY SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES...WILL KEEP LIKELY TO CHANCE WORDING IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP TO SPARK MORE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL/N KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND SHOULD PUSH
EASTWARD AGAIN INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT.  WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE WEST AND CHANCE IN THE EAST FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING.
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA LATER ON SUNDAY...
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 90S AGAIN BY NEXT WEEK.

WITH ALL THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A REAL
CHALLENGE.  JLN HIT 96 YESTERDAY WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WERE 10
DEGREES COOLER.  DONT SEE AS BIG OF WARM UP IN JLN TODAY WITH
PRECIPITATION AND MORE CLOUD COVER.  WILL GENERALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TODAY.

PRELIMINARY FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...
FCSTID = 05
SGF   86  72  84  70 /  60  60  60  50
JLN   89  75  90  75 /  60  60  60  50
UNO   85  72  83  69 /  50  50  60  40
VIH   83  68  82  69 /  50  40  40  40

.SGF...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

LINDENBERG