Heat in Missouri, April 8 to 9, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2001

WRM AND ACTIVE WX PATTERN TO CONT ACRS THE MIDWEST REGION THRU
MIDWEEK AS SW FLOW ALF PERSISTS.  LNG RNG MDLS THEN INDCT THIS SHUD
TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN AS WRN U.S. UPR LOW/TROF EJECTS THRU THE
PLAINS AND UPR MIDWEST BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE CONDS FOR LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

NEAR TERM FOCUS CONTS TO REVOLVE ARND TSTRM CHCS TNGT.  LATEST SFC
ANLYS SHOWS WRMFNT HAS LIFTED INTO SRN IA WHILE OBJECTIVE ANLYS SHWG
WRM SECTOR AMS ACRS NRN MO HAS BCM FAIRLY UNSTBL WITH CAPES
2000-2500 J/KG AND LIS -5 TO -7 AND LTL CIN RMNG.  CU FIELDS AND
MSAS MCON SHWG MAIN AREAS TO WATCH FOR DVLPMNT OVR THE NEXT 2-3 HRS
IS NW MO/NE KS AND SC IA.  INSTABILITY AND DP LYR SHEAR PLENTY
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SVR AND ABV AREAS COINCIDE WITH SPC MOD RISK
AREA. LRG SCALE UVV TO INCRS TNGT AND THIS SHUD AID IN ORGANIZATION
AND MORE WDSPRD COVERAGE.  WL CONT WITH HIEST POPS OVR NRN SXNS OF
CWFA DOWN TO CHC POPS CNTRL AND NIL SOUTH.  SWD THREAT IF ANY WL BE
LIKELY DICTATED BY MESOSCALE BNDRYS AND PROPAGATION.  VEERING LLJ
OVERNIGHT WUD SUGGEST ANY ACTVTY SHUD PUSH EAST INTO AT LEAST WRN
SXNS OF THE OH VLY OVERNIGHT.  WITH LACK OF DP MSTR ABV THE
PBL...MXG HAS ALLOWED SFC DPTS TO DCRS A BIT TDA AND THIS CUD MAKE
LOWS A LTL TRICKY IF WNDS DCRS TOO MUCH.  ATTM THE GUID LOOKS PRETTY
RSNBL WITH LM60S MOST LOCALES.

MDL DIFS THAT EXIST BGN TO BCM MORE IMPORTANT BGNG TMW WITH AVN A
BIT FASTER MOVG THE FRONT ACRS THE CWFA MON AND MON NGT.  ETA/NGM IN
CONTRAST AND AGREEMENT HOWEVER WITH FNT ONLY APCHG NE MO MON AFT AND
THEN SETTLING SOUTH TO JUST NORTH OF I-70 BY TUE MRNG.
INTERESTINGLY HOWEVER THE 12Z ETA SHOWED EFFECTIVE CNVCTV OUTFLOW
INTO FAR SRN SXNS OF THE CWFA BY 12Z TUE.  ATTM WL LEAN MORE TWDS
BRINGING THE FNT TO ARND I-70 BY TUE MRNG WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BTWN
THE ETA/AVN.  THAT SAID...THE ENTIRE RGN SHUD RMN WELL IN THE WRM
SECTOR ON MON AND WITH SSW LOW LVL FLOW...SHUD HEAT NICELY LIKE
TDA.  HV ALREADY TIED OR BROKE HI TMP RECORDS TDA AT COU/UIN AND WL
APCH BFR ALL IS SAID AND DONE IN STL.  RECORDS HIER IN COU/UIN TMW
BUT CUD APCH IN STL.  SEE NO REASON HIGHS TMW SHUDNT BE NEAR TDAS
LVLS AND HV ADJUSTED GUID UPWARD.  WL INTRO HI CHC POPS IN NRN SXNS
TMW AFT AS THIS RGN IS JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE FNT...IN PROXIMITY TO
GREATEST LIFT NR THE SFC LOW AND PROGGED TO BE VRY UNSTBL.  HV ADDED
CHC POPS FURTHER SOUTH THRU I-70 COORIDOOR AS MDLS ALL SHWG A SLUG
OF MID LVL MSTR MOVG IN LATE TMW AFT.

BEST THREAT OF WDSPRD STRMS LOOKS TMW NGT AS MSTR DPNS...FNT SAGS
SOUTH AND LRG SCALE LIFT INCRSS.  IN FACT ALL THE MDLS GENERATING
DECENT PCPN ACRS A LRG PTN OF THE CWFA.

ONLY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO LATER PDS.  HV KEPT HIEST POPS NR AND
SOUTH OF THE FNT ON TUE.  AVN RMNS CONSISTENT BACKING LLJ TUE
AFT/NGT AND SUGGESTING GOOD ELEVATED EVENT INTO WED MRNG.  UPR
TROF/LOW THEN LIFTS OUT OF THE WRN U.S. ON WED WITH ASSOCD PAC
CDFNT/DRYLN SWEEPING EWD ACRS THE AREA BRINGING YET ANOTHER THREAT
OF STRMS.

.STL...NONE
GLASS