Damaging Winds in Indiana, April 8, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
200 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2001

AT SURFACE AT 1PM MORE DIFFUSE (THAN PREVIOUSLY) FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
CFWA WEST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.  AT
THIS POINT JUST SOME FLAT SUPPRESSED CU IN AREA OF BEST PRESSURE
FALLS VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST IOWA.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MINOR IMPULSES AT TIMES
LIFTING FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  AT SURFACE
AFORMENTIONED FRONT FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH INTO OUR CWFA BUT THEN
STOP NORTHWARD MOVEMENT NEAR I 80, IN PART PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.  EXPECT OVERRUNNING CONVECTION TO GET CRANKING
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPAND
EASTWARD ALONG NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT.  ARRIVAL NOT IN OUR CWFA
UNTIL WELL AFTER DARK.  HIGH SBCAPES OVERRUNNING THE FRONT GIVE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS AS PER SWODY1.  ACITIVITY
LIKELY TO LINGER EAST INTO MONDAY. ETA THEN BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF
OVERRUNNING MONDAY NIGHT...BUT PLACES IT TO MAINLY OUR NORTH.  AVN
DOES NOT PRODUCE ANY PRECIP IN THIS REGION MONDAY AND IS A BIT
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE HAVING SOME PRECIP IN EASTERN CWFA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. GIVEN FRONTAL POSITION AND HICAPES/VERY LOW LIS IN
NORTHERN IL AND UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING BELIEVE AT LEAST NORTHERN
COUNTIES WOULD MERIT A 30 POP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

ANOTHER BREAK FOR TUESDAY AS FRONT SAG SOUTHS AND WEAK HIGH BUILDS
OUT OF CANADA INTO WESTERN LAKES. THEN ANOTHER MAJOR SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TAKING SHAPE IN THE ROCKIES AND THE FRONT RIPPLES NORTH
THREATENING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. EXTENDED REMAINS UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY EARLY ON AS PER
MANUAL PROGS.

TEMPERATURES TO BE TRICKY WITH FRONT IN VICINITY AND SOME WINDS OFF
THE CHILLY LAKE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

.CHI...NONE

KAPLAN

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032>033-039-INZ001>002-010>011-019-
091100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1200 PM CDT/EST SUN APR 8 2001

FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER DARK OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE DRY LINE WHICH PASSED THROUGH OUR AREA LAST EVENING IS HANGING
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING.  IT
IS FORECAST TO SURGE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT.  WARM MOIST
AIR OVERRUNNING THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD...WILL DEVELOP
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AFTER DARK AND
THEN NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE TONIGHT.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS LOOK TO BE HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENT AND DAMAGING WINDS LATER
ON ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

KAPLAN