Hail in Minnesota, April 24, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
251 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2001

TWO WEAK SHORT WAVES TO PASS ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. FIRST TO PASS
OVER THE SW THIS EVENING WHILE THE SECOND SHOULD BE OVER EAU IN
THE MORNING. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND POSITIVE DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION FAVORS SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
CWA TONIGHT. ETA H8-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO CIRCLES THIS AREA
ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. THINK IT IS PRUDENT TO
HAVE 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS EASTERN MN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS
W CENTRAL WI THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY STARTS TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS COUPLED WITH H8 TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE +6 TO
+10 C RANGE SHOULD YIELD HIGHS TOMORROW FROM THE UPPER 60S EAST TO
THE LOWER 70S WEST. IT SHOULD BE A RATHER MILD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS SW LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF WEAK BOUNDARY
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD EVEN WITH THE
WEAK BOUNDARY SETTLING SOUTH. WILL STICK WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 70
TO THE MIDDLE 70S.

EXTENDED FORECAST FAVORS A VERY WARM WEEKEND WITH H8 TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 20 DEG C ON SUNDAY. EVEN H7 TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO
AROUND 8 DEG C. SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS DOWN ACROSS THE CWA. BACK
INTO THE WARMTH ON TUESDAY IF THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS PROGGED.

.MSP...NONE.

HILTBRAND