Hail in Alabama, April 24, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
200 CDT TUE APR 24 2001

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING SURFACE COLD FRONT PARALLEL TO
INTERSTATE-65 WHERE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW OCCURRING.  DIFFICULTIES
FORECASTING FIRST PERIOD WILL BE COVERAGE AND DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.  ALL MODELS PUSH FRONT SOUTH OF
THE COASTLINE BY MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE PAST MIDNIGHT WHILE H85 FRONT ROLLS
THROUGH.  WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA FOR
TONIGHT...SCATTERED ELSEWHERE EXCEPT NORTHWEST CWA WHERE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
MADE PRIOR TO ISSUANCE TIME.

CLEARING SKIES OVER NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI SHOULD REACH THE
NORTHWEST CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE CAA AND SURFACE COOLING WILL
BRING TEMPS DOWN TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50.  ELSEWHERE...GRADUAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

DRY NEXT TWO DAYS WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS...WILL FOLLOW CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE.  ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ENTERING THE FORECAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

MARITIMES...WIND BECOMING SW 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN INCREASING
TO N 15 TO 20 AND GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WILL RAISE SCA AS NGM AND AVN ARE GOING FOR 20 TO 25 KT BY 12Z WED.
ETA IS RUNNING 15 TO 20 BUT BEST TO RENDER TO THE MORE CAUTIOUS
FORECAST. WILL ENCOURAGE EXERCISE OF CAUTION BY SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS IN ANTICIPATION OF SCA CONDITIONS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

FIRE...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE INCLUDING ESCAMBIA...SANTA
ROSA...OKALOOSA AND COASTAL WALTON COUNTIES...DUE TO VERY LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

/22

PRELIM NUMBERS...
MOB UU 052/075 046/078 051 22500
PNS UU 054N/076 050/077 052 22700
DTS UU 058/076 056/077 057 22700
GZH UU 051/074 041/078 045 22400
2R0 UU 046/073 040/078 045 22000
61A UU 048/074 039/077 045 22300

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.