Hail in Michigan, August 30, 2001

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
317 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2001

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE LOWER PENINSULA. BIG QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS THE EXTENT OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS IS NOT A
REAL DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. BEST LIFT WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA... WITH
BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH OF THE STATE. ETA DOES
SHOW A LITTLE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 250MB
JET OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING FROM NEAR ALPENA TO LUDINGTON AND THIS IS PROBABLY
INDICATIVE OF THIS JET SUPPORT. THERE ARE ALSO SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN IN THE AREA OF BEST INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT DUE TO THE JET SUPPORT AND JUST CHANCE ON THE
SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION AND WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE
DURING PRIME HEATING TIME. BUFKIT/BUFSHARP SOUNDINGS FROM JUST TO
OUR SOUTH  WERE SHOWING AROUND 2K JOULES OF CAPE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THIS POINT WILL JUST CARRY A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTH... BUT IF THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER US THEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
FOLLOWING FROPA... WITH 900-850MB RH RISING TO 80 PERCENT OR GREATER
OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY... PLUS WE
SHOULD HAVE SOME CYCLONIC FLOW OVER US. THIS WILL LEAD TO QUITE A
BIT OF CU/SC DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND FLOW BECOMES ANTI-CYCLONIC... THUS WE SHOULD
SEE CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF QUITE
RAPIDLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING THE 40S BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

NICE DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL.

RATHER BENIGN PATTERN FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY CAMPED OVER THE REGION. A SERIES OF
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA... BUT THEY WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THEREFORE... WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
HIGH DOES BEGIN TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AND THIS
ALLOWS SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA. GIVEN THAT
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT 7 DAYS DOWN THE LINE I WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

.DTX...NONE.

KEYES

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-311000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
618 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2001

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NIGHT
OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...INCLUDING THE FLINT...PORT HURON...ANN
ARBOR AND DETROIT AREAS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT WILL REACH SEVERE LIMITS...REQUIRING SPOTTER ACTIVATION.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY.
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...WILL SET OFF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...SINCE THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING WILL MAKE SEVERE STORM
GENERATION MORE DIFFICULT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...
WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA...SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO
AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MOVEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST AROUND 30 MPH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
OUTLET...FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. YOU CAN ALSO ACCESS THE
LATEST WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ON THE INTERNET AT

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX/START.HTM (ALL LOWER CASE)

DWD