Ice Storm in Maine, March 16, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
140 PM EST FRI MAR 16 2001

THE AMT OF MID AND HI LEVEL MOIST ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES TO THE S THE
MAIN FCST PROBLEM THE 1ST COUPLE OF PDS.

VIS/IR LOOP SHOWS CI AND AC MOVG NEWD TWD THE FA...AND WUD EXPECT
THAT AS THE WV TO THE S CRESTS LATER TNGT...THAT THE NEWD MVMT WL
BECOME MOMRE ENEWD.  THIS WL HAVE A LARGE IMPLICATION OF THE SKY
FCST...ESP FOR THE SRN ZNS...TNGT AND AT LEAST THE 1ST HALF OF SAT.

FOR NOW...BLV THAT AT LEAST THE SRN 1/3 OF THE FA SHUD SEE ENUF CI
(AND EVENTUALLY AC) SO THAT BECOMING M/CLDY SHUD WORK.  FURTHER N
AND E...MAY BE ABLE TO HOLD OFF ON THE AC...SO P/CLDY SHUD BE OK.

OVERALL...FWC NUMBERS HAVE BEEN A BIT BETTER THAN THE MAV NUMBERS
THE PAST 5 CYCLES.  NOT MUCH DIFFERENCES IN THE NUMBERS FOR
TNGT...AND THEY ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YDY.  THEREFORE...WL NOT GO
AS LOW AS SUM PLACES LAST NGT DUE TO THE THICKER CLD COVER.

FOR SAT...THE WV CRESTS TO THE S...AND IT SEEMS AS THO THERE WL BE A
THINNING OF THE MID LEVEL CLDS DECK...ESP N AND E OF PWM.  WL CONT
WITH P/SUNNY THERE...BUT MAY INDICATE BECOMING P/SUNNY S.  WITH THE
AMT OF THE CLDS EXPECTED...MAXES MAY ACTUALLY BE CLOSER TO THE
COOLER MAV NUMBERS...AS FWC NUMBERS APPEAR TO BE INDICATING CLOSE TO
FULL SUN MAXES.

FOR SAT NGT...YET ANOTHER PASS OF MOIST AS THE DEVELOP SYS TO THE S
BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF CLDS ACRS THE FA.  THIS AREA LUKS ABT AS
DEEP IN MOIST...AND ALSO LUKS TO COME FURTHER N.  IN FACT...THE AVN
SUGGESTS THAT SRNMOST ZNS MAY SEE --SHSN...BUT THE LO LEVELS APPEAR
TO DRY FOR THIS.  NONETHELESS...WL INDICATE CLDS ALL AREAS.  AS
WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY...WUD EXPECT SUM UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR THE
MTNS.  MOIST MAY NOT BE DEEP ENUF FOR -SHSN...SO MAY LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

FOR SUN...THE MOIST AGAIN EXITS AS THE SFC SYS PULLS AWAY E/SE OF
THE WATERS.  AGAIN...EXPECT ENUF OF AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT IN THE MTNS
FOR -SHSN...AIDED BY APCHG S/W.  WL INCLUDE --SHSN ELSEWHERE AS
LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE DIVING NRN STREAM S/W.
CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SFC SYS SHUD ALLOW MAXES ON SUN TO
BE A BIT COOLER THAN SUN.

FOR SUN NGT...WL INCLUDE -SHSN FOR THE MTNS AND --SHSN ELSEWHERE IN
CAA.  THIS MAY CUT OFF NR THE CST LATE.

FOR THE EXTENDED...AVN SUGGESTS THAT MOIST MAY BACK IN AS FAR AS THE
ERN ZNS MON...BUT FOR NOW WL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC.  NEXT SYS OF
INTEREST IS THE SYS TO DEVELOP IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO.  NEW AVN
AT 120H DIFFERENT FROM OPS MRF AND MRF ENSEMBLES.  CONTRASTED WITH
THE TRACK FURTHER W OF THE 15/12Z ECMWF...UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYS
CERTAINLY EXITS.  FOR NOW...WL CUT THE TRACK DOWN THE MIDDLE AND
MENTION INCRG CLDS FOR WED...AND MIXED PCPN FOR THU AND FRI.

ON THE CSTL WATERS...WUD EXPECT WINDS TO DROP AS THE CAA ENDS.
WINDS SHUD PICK UP BHND THE SFC SYS SUN...BUT FOR NOW WL LEAVE BLO
SCA.

PRELIM WRKZFP/WRKCWF AVBL SOON. AS ALWAYS...COMMENTS/OPINIONS
WELCOME.

.GYX...NONE.

HAYES