Damaging Wind in Georgia, March 16, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
315 AM EST FRI MAR 16 2001

A SERIES OF IMPULSES WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ALONG THE
FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE NORTH OF CEDAR KEY.
STRONGEST CELLS ATTM ARE OVER THE WATERS OF THE GULF AND ATLANTIC
AND ARE PRODUCING INTENSE LIGHTNING.

MESOETA DROPS THIS BOUNDARY TO JUST SOUTH OF CWA SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WHILE AVN WAITS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THINK AVN IS MORE
REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT POSITION. EITHER WAY WE SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN. A FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS UP IN
SOUTH/CENTRAL FL SATURDAY MORNING. FOR TODAY...WILL DROP POPS OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS...GO WITH 30-40% ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND 50% POPS
IN FLORIDA THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE TO LOWER 80S SOUTH PART AND
MID 70S NORTH PART...AND DIP INTO UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TONIGHT.

SAT/SAT NIGHT...DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
TROUGH IN SOUTHERN GULF ENHANCES ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SW FLOW DRIVES
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR SAT NIGHT AND
NOT JUMP ON THE 60-80% WHICH MAV HAS.

EXTENDED...DEVELOPING LOW IN GULF CROSS THE FL PENINSULA ON MONDAY
THEN DEEPENS IN THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE FA. GOOD RAIN CHANCE
EXISTS SUN THROUGH TUE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WED/THU.

MARINE...BUOYS REPORTING SCEC CONDITIONS WITH SABSOON UP TO 18-20
KT. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE LATER TODAY WHEN FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
AND WILL PUT SCA INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

PRELIM
AMG 77/46/69/43 -003
SSI 76/50/67/48 3003
JAX 81/51/70/47 5-13
GNV 79/52/69/51 6-13 28

.JAX...
GA...RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR ALTAMAHA RIVER@CHARLOTTE & BAXLEY.
     SCA ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH 20-60 NM OFFSHORE.
FL...SCA FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH 20-60 NM OFFSHORE.

TRABERT/CARROLL

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-161730-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
515 AM EST FRI MAR 16 2001

A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT...
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ADDITIONALLY...DUE TO THE ORIENTATION AND
MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY. LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

ALTHOUGH SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...SPOTTERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THISR ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL