Damaging Wind in Louisiana, November 29, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO DATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
300 AM CST THU NOV 29 2001

ALL THE ACTION IN THE FIRST PERIOD AND LATE FALL WEATHER FOR THE
GULF COAST AFTER THURSDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY...EXTENDING FROM GREENWOOD TO VICKSBURG TO
NATCHEZ TO JUST EAST OF LAFAYETTE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA...TRIGGERING
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND THE MAIN TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS. AS OF
07Z...850MB PROFILER PLANE SHOWED THE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI
TO NORTH TEXAS AND 500MB PROFILER PLANE SHOWED THE TROUGH FROM
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. IN
ADDITION...300MB PROFILER PLANE SHOWED WINDS GREATER THAN 100 KNOTS
FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO SOUTHERN IOWA AND AROUND 50 KNOTS OVER
NEW MEXICO OR THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. TO ADD...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED THE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED.

WITH THE SYSTEM STARTING TO KICK OUT...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD
OCCUR DURING THE FIRST PERIOD. THE AVN...NGM AND ETA ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH 24 HOURS. TWO SURFACE LOWS WERE ANALYZED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
COASTAL WATERS. THE NORTHERN LOW WILL BECOME THE MAIN LOW AND TRACK
NORTHEAST. THE BOUNDARY WILL START TO SPEED EAST REACHING BTR
BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z...MCB AND MSY BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z AND GPT
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY LINGER 2 TO 3
HOUR AFTER FROPA. WITH CONVECTION REGENERATION OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WILL CONTINUE TO CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY
AND EARLY EVENING FOR MISSISSIPPI COAST. SIGNIFICANT DRYING ON THE
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...SO CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...GULF COAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

HERE ARE SOME NUMBERS TO PONDER...

MCB 065/039/060/039 8000
BTR 058/042/062/042 8000
MSY 072/049/062/045 8000
GPT 073/044/061/045 8100

.NEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM PASCAGOULA TO THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
OUT 60 NM INCLUDING LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

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