Damaging Winds in Kentucky, October 5, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2001

FCST PROBLEM THIS CYCLE IS IN SHORT TERM...TNGT...AS WX SYSTEM PLOWS
THRU AREA BRINGING IN COOLER...BUT MSTLY SNY WX FOR WEEKEND. NO REAL
PROBLEMS WITH MODEL DISCREPANCY.

CURRENTLY...RAIN OCCRG ACRS S-CNTRL IN AND CROSSING RIVER INTO
N-CNTRL KY. SHWRS/TSTMS THEN INDICATED ON PAH RADAR ACRS WRN KY INTO
NWRN TN. ACRS SWRN KY AND NWRN TN...REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT IS
TIGHTENING AT THIS TIME. THIS IS MAIN AREA OF CONCERN AS IT TRACKS
AND BULGES EWD LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING
LOW-LVL MSTR CNVRGNC AND DEEP LAYERED FORCING. SPC HAS ALREADY
ISSUED AN MCD FOR THIS AREA...THUS A SVR TSTM WATCH IS PSBL FOR
PARTS OF CNTRL/S-CNTRL KY LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG IF CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS CONTINUE. INSTABILITY MARGINAL BUT ENOUGH FOR LOW-TOPPED
CNVCTN WITH GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLD-SCT WIND DAMAGE.

SYSTEM WL MOV QUICKLY THRU FCST AREA TNGT...WITH CLRG XPCTD OVRNGT
IN WRN PORTION OF FCST AREA. CLRG WL SWEEP EWD BY DAYBREAK AND EARLY
SATURDAY OVR ERN AREAS. WIDESPREAD LINGERING LOW CLDS NOT EXPECTED
IN WAKE OF CDFNT AS LOW-LVL FLOW WL BE BASICALLY ANTICYCLONIC AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OH VLY. THUS...MSTLY SNY OR BCMG MSTLY SNY
ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SOME AFTN FAIR WX FLAT SC CLDS.

SATURDAY NGT...THE HIGH WL BUILD INTO OUR AREA REDUCING SFC WINDS.
WITH CLR SKY...GREAT SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS AREAS OF
FROST APR LIKELY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S OR SO (AT OR BELOW
GUIDANCE). COULD EVEN SEE SOME READINGS IN LWR 30S IN A FEW LOW
LYING RURAL AREAS.

ON SUNDAY...STILL RELATIVELY COOL UNDER A MSTLY SNY SKY. THEN ONE
MORE COOL NGT SUNDAY NGT FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WRMG TREND AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS NEXT CHC OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP MAY HOLD OFF TO THURS AND FRI. WDLY SCT SHWRS ARE
PSBL TUE OR WED OVR WRN SECTIONS...BUT HV NOT INCLUDED IN EXTENDED
FCST AT THIS TIME.

.SDF...NONE.
FUNK

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078
-081-082-052100-

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1230 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2001

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS INDICATED THAT A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM OHIO TO SOUTHERN MISOURI WILL REACH THE
OHIO RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT.

WHILE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...STRONG WIND FIELDS IN THE ATMOSPHERE MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
THE STRONGEST STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS...OR YOUR LOCAL CABLE OUTLET FOR FURTHER UPDATES. SKYWARN
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TWF