Hail in Kansas, October 9, 2001

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
225 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2001

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAIN FOCUS TODAY.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE OVER SW NEBR WITH DRY LINE
EXTENDING S ACROSS WRN KANSAS AND WARM FRONT STRETCHING EAST ACROSS
SRN NEBR.  COLD FRONT SEPARATING PANHANDLE FROM THE REST OF THE
STATE.  PLENTY OF SFC MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 60.
SATELLITE/PROFILERS SHOW POTENT WAVE CROSSING THE ROCKIES AND
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE SET UP OVER PLAINS. SO PLENTY OF LIFT.

CAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG ON 18Z LAPS AND EVEN HIGHER ON SPC HOURLY MESO
ANALYSIS.  500 MB TEMPS OF -14C ACROSS THE AREA.  VIL O DAY FIGURES
TO BE AROUND 50 OFF 18Z SOUNDINGS.  SHEARWISE...FLOW IS OBVIOUSLY
VERY STRONG WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN LOWEST LEVELS YIELDING
HIGH VALUES OF BRN AND EHI ON SPC MESO PLOTS.  HOWEVER AS
AFTN/EVENING PROGRESSES...WINDS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT
ALTHOUGH UNDULATIONS LIKELY NEAR FRONT AS SFC LOW RIDES ALONG IT.
THEREFORE...TORNADO THREAT FIGURES TO BE REAL IN ADDITION TO THE
HAIL THREAT FROM COLD AIR ALOFT.  EVENTUALLY THIS SHOULD TURN INTO A
LINE EVENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  18Z SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT THREAT OF
WIND DAMAGE AS WELL.

SO...WILL MENTION SVR IN ZFP THIS EVENING. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE LATE
TONIGHT AND WED BEHIND FRONT SO NW WINDS SHOULD SUSTAIN AT LEAST
BREEZY CRITERIA.  WOULD EXPECT A DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH
SUBSIDENCE THEN SOME REFORMING IN CAA WED.  HAD TO UP TEMPS A NOTCH
TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTED MIXING
OVERNIGHT.  HAVE INCREASED DIURNAL RANGE A BIT WED/WED NGT AND THU
WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY AS CHANCE OF RAIN STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK FRIDAY.  APPEARS A SLIGHT WARMUP MAY RETURN BY
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO NUDGE TROUGH EAST.

.GID...NONE.

DROZD

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-092100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK - SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1103 AM CDT TUE OCT 9 2001

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SEVERAL PARAMETERS WILL COME TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ONTO THE PLAINS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO NEBRASKA...AND A
DRY LINE BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST FROM WESTERN KANSAS.  THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE STORMS IS LARGE HAIL...BUT
THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARIES.  BY LATER THIS EVENING THE CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE
INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING A THREAT AS WELL.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION TODAY AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

FAY