Damaging Wind in Kansas, May 16, 2001

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
200 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2001

...TIMING/PLACING TSRA CHCS BIG CHALLENGE AS ACTIVE PAC FLOW CONTS...

UAA THIS AM 100-125KT H3 JET FROM ID TO MN. WE COME UNDER RRQ OF THIS
JET TNGT-THU. IN THE H5-H7 LAYER...WARM DOME CURRENTLY POISED OVER &
S OF CWA. HWVR...COOLER TEMPS ADVTG IN FROM NRN CO & WY. MEANWHILE...
H85 FRONT STALLED NEAR NEB/KS BORDER W/ 8-10 DEG DWPTS POOLED ON IT.

AT THE SFC...EARLY AFTN CHART HAD STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR NEB/KS BORDER
W/ 70 DWPTS POOLING ALONG & S OF IT. INTERESTING FEATURE...BASICALLY
A COOL FRONT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONG WESTERLIES HAS PUSHED INTO
S CO & NW KS...W/ NORTHEAST EXTENT OF THIS INTO WRN/NRN CWA. APPEARS
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTN/EVE TSRAS. CAP WL BREAK TODAY.
IN FACT IT ALREADY HAS IN WRN KS. TSRAS SHOULD FIRE IN THIS AREA IN
A FEW HRS & PROBABLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS BOUNDARY SHIFTS SE INTO
OTHER WASHED OUT FRONT & RICHER DWPTS FROM NEB/KS BORDER SOUTH.

OTHERWISE...MAIN COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NRN WY/WRN ND W/ THE USUAL
PRE-FRONTAL TROF FROM WRN SD INTO THE NEB PNDHL. THESE FEATURES MAY
STILL FOCUS SOME TSRAS...BUT IT APPEARS MOISTURE WL REMAIN LARGELY
CUTOFF...ONCE TSRAS FIRE ON SRN BOUNDARIES. WL HIT SRN AREAS HARDEST
W/ ONLY A 20/30% IN THE NORTH.

INTO THU...COLD AIR CONTS TO SLIP INTO CWA BEHIND FRONT...WHICH WILL
CLEAR KS BY 00Z. WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM WRN US
INTO THE PACIFIC. THIS SUPPORTS MDLS IDEA OF POSTFRONTAL PCPN TO AT
LEAST SRN PARTS OF CWA...AS ENERGY OVERRIDES COOL LLVL AIR. AGAIN...
WL WORD SRN ZONES W/ BETTER CHCS. WE ALSO LOSE ANOTHER 10 DEGS OFF MX
TEMPS BEHIND THIS FRONT.

PAST THAT...MDLS CONT TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE W/ STRENGTH/TIMING OF
VARIOUS SYSTEMS...BUT GENERALLY SUGGEST DRY WX THRU FRI...W/ A RETURN
OF TSRA CHCS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON SUN
AS STRONG COLD FRONT...PROBABLY THE LAST IN THE SERIES...DIVES THRU
THE PLAINS. WL BASICALLY LEAVE EXTENDED ALONG...XCPT TWEAKING MON A
BIT LOWER & TREND TEMPS WARMER TUE INTO WED .

.GID...NONE.

GURNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
508 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0504 PM    3 S MILLIGAN              NE    .88 INCH HAIL
05/16/01   FILLMORE

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-170100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK - SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
522 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2001

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...AND PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS.

THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL
STRETCH FROM NEAR GENEVA NEBRASKA...TO RED CLOUD...AND THEN TO SMITH
CENTER AND PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS. FOR LOCATIONS ANYWHERE SOUTH OF THIS
LINE...THERE EXISTS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING.

THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AROUND 20 MPH. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. AN ISOLATED...BUT BRIEF TORNADO...IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS BEFORE SUNSET.

TO THE NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT A SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

MORITZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
747 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0643 PM    2 N REPUBLICAN CITY       NE    .75 INCH HAIL
05/16/01   HARLAN

0650 PM    6 NW NAPONEE              NE    .75 INCH HAIL
05/16/01   FRANKLIN